Projected changes in population exposure to extreme heat in China under a RCP8.5 scenario  

未来情境下中国高温的人口暴露度变化及影响因素研究（英文）

作　　者：黄大鹏 张蕾 高歌 孙劭 

机构地区：[1]National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration [2]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology [3]National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2018年第10期1371-1384,共14页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41101517;National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41701103;National Industry-specific Topics,No.GYHY201506051

摘　　要：Overall population exposure is measured by multiplying the annual average number of extremely hot days by the number of people exposed to the resultant heat. Extreme heat is also subdivided into high temperature（HT） and extremely high temperature（EHT） in cases where daily maximum temperature exceeds 35℃ and 40℃, respectively. Chinese population exposure to HT and EHT over four periods in the future（i.e., 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2060–2081 and 2081–2100） were projected at the grid cell level in this study using daily maximum temperature based on an ensemble mean of 21 global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario and with a population projection based on the A2 r socio-economic scenario. The relative importance of population and climate as drivers of population exposure was evaluated at different spatial scales including national and meteorological geographical divisions. Results show that, compared with population exposure seen during 1981–2010, the base period, exposure to HT in China is likely to increase by 1.3, 2.0, 3.6, and 5.9 times, respectively, over the four periods, while concomitant exposure to EHT is likely to increase by 2.0, 8.3, 24.2, and 82.7 times, respectively. Data show that population exposure to HT is likely to increase significantly in Jianghuai region, Southwest China and Jianghan region, in particular in North China, Huanghuai region, South China and Jiangnan region. Population exposure to EHT is also likely to increase significantly in Southwest China and Jianghan region, especially in North China, Huanghuai, Jiangnan, and Jianghuai regions. Results reveal that climate is the most important factor driving the level of population exposure in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and Jiangnan regions, as well as in South and Southwest China, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. Data show that the climatic factor is also most significant at the national level, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. The rate of contrOverall population exposure is measured by multiplying the annual average number of extremely hot days by the number of people exposed to the resultant heat. Extreme heat is also subdivided into high temperature（HT） and extremely high temperature（EHT） in cases where daily maximum temperature exceeds 35℃ and 40℃, respectively. Chinese population exposure to HT and EHT over four periods in the future（i.e., 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2060–2081 and 2081–2100） were projected at the grid cell level in this study using daily maximum temperature based on an ensemble mean of 21 global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario and with a population projection based on the A2 r socio-economic scenario. The relative importance of population and climate as drivers of population exposure was evaluated at different spatial scales including national and meteorological geographical divisions. Results show that, compared with population exposure seen during 1981–2010, the base period, exposure to HT in China is likely to increase by 1.3, 2.0, 3.6, and 5.9 times, respectively, over the four periods, while concomitant exposure to EHT is likely to increase by 2.0, 8.3, 24.2, and 82.7 times, respectively. Data show that population exposure to HT is likely to increase significantly in Jianghuai region, Southwest China and Jianghan region, in particular in North China, Huanghuai region, South China and Jiangnan region. Population exposure to EHT is also likely to increase significantly in Southwest China and Jianghan region, especially in North China, Huanghuai, Jiangnan, and Jianghuai regions. Results reveal that climate is the most important factor driving the level of population exposure in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and Jiangnan regions, as well as in South and Southwest China, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. Data show that the climatic factor is also most significant at the national level, followed by the interactive effect between population and climate. The rate of contr

关 键 词：RCP8.5 scenario population exposure high temperature extremely high temperature driving forces 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]