基于多属性逆向拍卖的工程担保分保竞拍  

Reinsurance auction for surety bonds based on multi-attribute reverse auctions

作　　者：薛彦广 邓晓梅[1] 苏贵良 XUE Yanguang;DENG Xiaomei;SU Guiliang(Research Center for Surety Bonds and Construction Market Governance,Department of Construction Management,Tsinghoa University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系工程担保与建筑市场治理研究中心

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第9期841-848,共8页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473145)

摘　　要：工程担保机构常面临着单笔承保保额或担保余额超限的问题,产生了分保的需求,但中国工程担保市场分保渠道不通畅且缺乏分保操作指导。该文将中国初步形成的工程担保体系视为一个竞争性的分保平台,提出利用挂牌竞拍机制实现工程担保的分保操作,有利于适度增加分保交易的竞争性,提高分保交易效率,进一步推进分保费率的市场化。该文结合工程担保行业实务以及网上多属性逆向拍卖的特点,构建了工程担保分保竞拍博弈模型,模型包含了关于候选分入人的3类竞拍属性：分保综合费用、分保承保风险评分和来自第三方企业征信系统的信用评价。分析了候选分入人的Bayes-Nash均衡策略。该文基于Monte Carlo模拟方法对所提出模型进行仿真研究,分析了在候选分入人不同人数的情况下,中标分入人的总得分及各属性得分的变化趋势,仿真结果与实际情况基本吻合。Surety companies always face the problem that the guaranteed amount per bond or the guaranteed balance often exceeds its limit.Surety companies then need surety reinsurance but such policies still lack operational guidance on the use of surety reinsurance in China.This paper presents the surety reinsurance system as a competitive surety reinsurance platform and introduces an auction mechanism for the reinsurance operations to increase the reinsurance efficiency and competitiveness and promote market-oriented reinsurance premiums.Then,a surety reinsurance game model is developed based on a multi-attribute reverse auction with a Bayesian-Nash equilibrium strategy.Its three bidding attributes for the candidate reinsurer include the total reinsurance expense,the underwriting risk and the credit rating from the credit reporting system.A Monte Carlo simulation is then used to simulate the model and analyze the trends of the total score and the sub-attribute scores of the winning candidate for various numbers of candidates.The simulation results agree well with real data.

关 键 词：工程担保 承保风险 分保 多属性拍卖 Monte Carlo模拟 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]