土地供应计划对地方政府土地供应决策的影响:基于前景理论的分析  

Impacts of land supply planning on local government land supply behaviour:An analysis based on prospect theory

作　　者：吴淑萍[1,2] 杨赞[1,2] WU Shuping;YANG Zan(Hang Lung Center for Real Estate Studies Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Department of Construction Management,Tsinghoa University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学恒隆房地产研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第9期849-857,共9页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673154)

摘　　要：土地作为经济发展的基本生产要素,其有效供应对经济和社会发展具有重要影响。在中国,国有土地实行计划供应,土地供应计划对地方政府土地供应决策的影响会显著影响土地供应效率。该文在前景理论框架下,基于全国各省及直辖市以及地级市住房用地供应计划及执行情况的面板数据,采用面板模型和门槛面板模型,分析发现2010—2013年间地方政府在住房用地供应计划下的住房用地供应行为符合前景理论预测：对供应计划目标存在参照依赖,但同时存在敏感度递减。超额设定的供应计划可以提高地方政府的住房用地供应量;但计划目标设定过高时,计划效力减弱,计划未完成率提升。The land supply significantly impact economic and social development. China supplies state-owned land under an administrative plan whose effectiveness determines the land resource allocation efficiency.Prospect theory is used here to investigate a local government＇s residential land supply behavior for one representative administrative plan from 2010 to 2013 based on panel data from provincial and prefecture level cities in China.The results illustrate the reference dependence and diminishing sensitivity of a local government＇s residential land supply behavior and indicate that a residential land supply administrative plan will not be efficient if the objective is set too high.

关 键 词：土地供应 政府 前景理论 门槛面板模型 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]