应用集中度和圆形分布法分析2011-2016年长治市手足口病季节性特征  

Analysis on seasonal characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease by using concentration ration and circular distribution methods in Changzhi in 2011-2016

作　　者：康育慧[1] 崔咏梅 曹文君 KANG Yu-hui;CUI Yong-mei;CAO Wen jun(Department of Mathematics,Changzhi Medical University,Changzhi,Shanxi 046000,China)

机构地区：[1]长治医学院数学教研室,山西长治046000 [2]长治市疾病预防控制中心传染病科 [3]长治医学院公共卫生与预防医学系

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2018年第8期569-572,共4页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81302518)

摘　　要：目的了解长治市手足口病(HFMD)季节性流行特征,为手足口病防治提供科学依据。方法采用集中度和圆形分布法,对从长治市传染病报告管理系统获取的2011-2016年HFMD分月发病资料进行季节性特征分析,采用雷氏检验(Rayleigh′test)法进行圆形分布的平均角的检验,用Watson-Williams检验法对各年平均角进行比较。结果 2011-2016年长治市HFMD的总集中度M=0.630。2011-2016年HFMD圆形分布的总集中趋势r=0.627,α=184.569°(Rayleigh′test:Z=8 217.969>>Z0.05,P<0.01),HFMD发病总高峰日为7月6日,流行高峰期为5月11日至8月31日。长治市2011-2016年平均角之间差异有统计学意义(F=351.280,P<0.01),各年HFMD高峰日不同。结论长治市2011-2016年HFMD发病呈明显的季节性趋势,5~8月为流行高峰期,总发病高峰日为7月6日,相关部门应在高峰期前和高峰期内有针对性地开展疾病防控和监测工作。Objective To understand the seasonal characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD）in Changzhi city,and to provide scientific basis for disease prevention and control. Methods HFMD monthly data were obtained from the reporting management system of infectious diseases in Changzhi and the seasonal characteristics of HFMD was analyzed by using the concentration ratio and the circular distribution methods.The average angle of the circular distribution was calculated using Rayleigh′s test,and the annual average angle was compared by using Watson-Williams test. Results From 2011 to 2016,the overall concentration ratio of HFMD was 0.630 and the overall concentration trend of HFMD circular distribution was 0.627,（Rayleigh test：Z=8 217.969 Z0.05,P〈0.01）.The most common peak day of HFMD was July 6,which varied each year,and the peak season was from May 11 to August 31.The Watson-Williams test showed a statistically significant difference in the annual average angle（F=351.280,P〈0.01）. Conclusions The incidence of HFMD in Changzhi city from 2011 to 2016 shows an obvious seasonal trend with peak season falling on May to August and the peak day on July 6.Therefore,disease control and monitoring should be carried out before the peak season and during peak periods.

关 键 词：手足口病 集中度 圆形分布法 季节性 雷氏检验 Watson-Williams检验 集中趋势 

分 类 号：R183.1[医药卫生—流行病学] R195.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]