“枷锁”还是“激励”?社会保险与创业  

“Shackles”or “Incentive”? Social Insurance and Entrepreneurship

作　　者：周德水 刘一伟[2] ZHOU De-shui;LIU Yi-wei

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院 [2]武汉大学社会保障研究中心

出　　处：《科学决策》2018年第6期1-20,共20页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家社科重大项目(17ZDA121)

摘　　要：基于最新发布的中国家庭追踪调查数据(2016CFPS),运用Logit模型分析了社会保险对创业的影响。研究发现,不同社会保险项目对居民创业存在显著差异,养老保险对创业具有显著的"枷锁效应",医疗保险则具有显著的"激励效应"。通过运用工具变量法和倾向得分匹配法控制了样本选择性偏误和内生性后,依然支持研究结果。机制分析表明医疗保险通过缓解医疗费用支出来促进创业,养老保险则是通过降低金融风险投资概率对创业产生负向影响。文章进一步指出,医疗保险对创业的"激励效应"主要在40岁以下的农村居民;养老保险的"枷锁效应"则主要在40以下的城镇居民。Based on the latest released Chinese family tracking survey data（2016 CFPS）, we use logit model to analyze the effect of social insurance on entrepreneurship. We find that different social insurance programs have a great impact on residents＇ entrepreneurship. Endowment insurance has a significant ＂shackles effect＂ on entrepreneurship, while Medicare has a significant ＂incentive effect＂. The results are still supported by the method of instrumental variables and propensity score matching to control the selective bias and endogeneity of the sample. The mechanism analysis shows that medical insurance promotes entrepreneurship by alleviating the expenditure of medical expenses, and the endowment insurance has negative influence on entrepreneurship by reducing the probability of risky financial investment. The article further points out that the ＂incentive effect＂ of medical insurance on entrepreneurship is mainly in rural residents under 40 years old, and the ＂ Shackles effect＂ of endowment insurance is mainly in urban residents under 40 years old.

关 键 词：社会保险 创业 户籍 区域 

分 类 号：C979[经济管理—劳动经济]