我国货币政策传导的动态变化与新常态下调控优化  

Dynamic Changes of China's Monetary Policy Transmission and Regulatory Optimization Under the New Norm

作　　者：徐亚平[1] 王蕊[1] XU Ya-ping;WANG Rui(School of Economics,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《经济经纬》2018年第5期151-157,共7页Economic Survey

基　　金：安徽省社会科学规划重点项目(AHSKZ2017D01);国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD011)

摘　　要：借助可变系数的结构VAR模型,考虑外生冲击的波动性,对1996—2016我国货币政策传导的动态变化进行了分析。结果显示,随着我国经济逐步进入新常态,货币冲击对GDP的短期和中期影响显著降低;比较而言,货币冲击对通货膨胀的影响要明显大于对经济增长的影响;利率变动对我国经济发展会产生较明显的负向冲击,但总体波动幅度不大。我国货币政策传导变化的主要原因在于我国经济结构等方面的深刻变化。Through structural VAR model with the variable coefficients,this paper takes into account the volatility of exogenous shocks and deeply analyzes the dynamic changes of China＇s monetary policy transmission from 1996 to 2016. Studies show that as China＇s economy gradually steps into the new norm,the short-term and medium-term impact of monetary shocks on GDP is significantly reduced. At the same time,the impact of monetary shocks on inflation is significantly greater than that on economic growth in comparison. On the other hand,changes in interest rates will have an obvious negative impact on China＇s economic development,but the overall volatility is not great. China＇s monetary policy transmission changes are largely due to the profound changes in multiple aspects such as China＇s economic structure,social financing structure and the imbalance between the real economy and fictitious economy.

关 键 词：货币政策传导 脉冲响应分析 TVP-SV-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]