“十三五”以来国内外食糖市场形势分析与未来展望  

Domestic and International Sugar Market Situations and Their Prospects during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period

作　　者：刘晓雪[1] 段萱 Liu Xiaoxue;Duan Xuan(Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学,北京100048

出　　处：《农业展望》2018年第9期8-16,共9页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业部;财政部国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项资金(CARS-170601);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097);国际农业研究体系"主要国家食糖市场稳定政策跟踪研究"

摘　　要："十三五"以来,国际原糖价格从24.1美分/Ib震荡下跌到9.9美分/Ib,国内糖价则从7 040元/t下滑至5 170元/t;国际食糖市场由供给短缺转为供给过剩,考虑期初库存国内食糖市场亦呈现供给宽松格局。展望未来,2018/19榨季全球食糖市场供给过剩仍将持续,全球糖市低价运行, 2019/20榨季食糖供给调整受到糖农反应程度和糖价调整程度、天气因素的影响;国内糖业将在过剩的累积效应、去杠杆背景下的融资压力、蔗款兑付进度等多重因素交织下面临困局,急需农工贸一体化下对糖业生产方式、农企合作模式、生产者补贴政策等全方位进行变革,以缓解不利形势对国内糖业的打击。During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the price of international raw sugar has dropped from 24.1 cents per Ib to 9.9 cents per Ib, and the domestic sugar price has dropped from 7 040 yuan per ton to 5 170 yuan per ton. At the same time, the international sugar market has changed from supply shortage to oversupply, and the domestic sugar market has also shown a sufficient supply under the consideration of beginning stock. Looking forward to the future, the oversupply of the global sugar market in the 2018/19 crushing season will continue. The global sugar market will operate at a low price level. The adjustment of sugar supply in 2019/20 crushing season will be affected by the degree of sugar farmers＇ reaction, the adjustment of sugar prices, and weather conditions. China＇s sugar industry will face the dilemma due to the excess cumulative effect, financing pressure in the context of deleveraging, sugarcane payment schedule and others. There is an urgent need to make all-around changes to the sugar production mode of sugar industry, cooperation mode between agricultural enterprises and producer subsidy policy under the integration of agriculture, industry and trade, so as to alleviate the impact of adverse situation on the sugar industry in China.

关 键 词：十三五 食糖市场 食糖价格 供给和消费 供给过剩 贸易保障措施 生产者补贴 展望 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济]