中国财政金融支农对农业产出增长的效应分析  

Performance of China's Fiscal and Financial Support for Agriculture to Improve Agricultural Output

作　　者：倪旭 张峭[1] Ni Xu;Zhang Qiao(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Acodemy of Agricultural Scienees,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2018年第9期20-24,共5页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：利用1978—2016年中国财政支农、农业贷款和农业产出数据构建VAR模型,通过建立协整方程,运用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法 ,分析了中国财政金融支农对农业产出增长的效应。结果表明:农业产出短期内具有较强的增长惯性,长期受农业贷款影响显著,受财政支农影响微弱。农业贷款是农业产出增长的Granger原因,且两者存在单向正相关关系;财政支农不是农业产出增长的Granger原因,而农业产出是财政支农增长的Granger原因。长期而言,农业贷款显著促进了农业产出的增长,而农业产出增长又会提升财政支农水平。最后,提出完善农村金融体系、优化调整财政支农惠农政策、探索财政金融支农政策合力点等提升农业产出的发展建议。Based on the data of fiscal support for agriculture, agricultural loans and agriculture output from 1978 to 2016 in China, by building VAR model and establishing cointegration equation, using Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition method, this paper analyzed the effect of fiscal and financial support for agriculture on agricultural output growth in China. The results showed that agricultural output has strong growth inertia in the short run, which was significantly affected by agricultural loans in the long run, and was weakly affected by fiscal support for agriculture. Agricultural loan was the Granger reason for the growth of agricultural output, and there was a one-way and positive correlation between them. Fiscal support for agriculture was not the Granger reason for the growth of agricultural output, while the agricultural output was the Granger reason of the growth of fiscal support for agriculture. In the long run, agricultural loans significantly promoted the growth of agricultural output, and the growth of agricultural output would increase the level of fiscal support for agriculture. Finally, some suggestions were put forward to enhance agricultural output, such as improving the rural financial system, optimizing and adjusting the policy of fiscal support for agriculture, exploring the resultant point of fiscal and financial support policy for agriculture and so on.

关 键 词：财政支农 农业贷款 农业产出 VAR模型 GRANGER原因 方差分解 

分 类 号：F812.8[经济管理—财政学] F323