中国非金融企业债务:影响因素、动态特征及处理对策——基于“从一般到特殊”的动态建模方法  

Non-financial Corporate Debt in China: Influencing Factors,Dynamic Characteristics and Measures: Based on the “from General to Specific” Methodology

作　　者：洪朝伟 徐朝阳[2] Hong Chaowei;Xu Zhaoyang(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijin;University of International Business and Economics,Beijin)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《经济社会体制比较》2018年第5期35-46,共12页Comparative Economic & Social Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上基金项目“预防和化解产能过剩问题的长效机制研究:基于无限期动态博弈模型”(项目编号:71573039);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“全球数字贸易治理体系发展趋向及其贸易影响研究创新团队”(项目编号:CXTD9-06)

摘　　要：文章利用“从一般到特殊”的动态建模方法研究了中国非金融企业债务的长短期影响因素。实证结果表明，不论从长期还是短期来看，中国非金融企业债务与货币供应量均正向变动，而与经济增长率、融资成本、直接融资比重、房地产价格、通货膨胀率负向变动。长期通货膨胀率弹性系数为-2．08，说明长期内“债务-通货紧缩”风险不容忽视。文章最后提出了政策建议：将经济增长作为主要着力点，实行积极的财政政策；注意“债务-通货紧缩”风险，处理落后产能；提高直接融资比重，增加股票融资。This paper studies the short - term and long - term determinants of non - financial corporate debt in China using the ＂from General to Specific＂ methodology. The empirical results show that the non - financial corporate debt changes positively with money supply and negatively with the level of economic growth, financing costs, the proportion of direct financing, real estate prices and inflation. The long - run inflation elasticity is - 2.08, indicating that the long - term ＂debt - deflation＂ risk should not be overlooked. At the end of the article, we put forward some suggestions about deleveraging ： taking economic growth as the main target and implementing a positive fiscal policy ; paying attention to the ＂debt - deflation＂ risk and dealing with backward production capacity; raising the proportion of direct financing and equity financing.

关 键 词：非金融企业债务率 “债务-通货紧缩”风险动态建模 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]