基于云重心评判法的海上船舶溢油危害等级评价研究  

Research on Ship Oil Spill Damage Assessment Based on Membership Cloud Gravity Center Method

作　　者：张可[1] 刘晓佳[1] 王若琦 张艳艳 ZHANG Ke;LIU Xiao-jia;WQNG Ruo-qi;ZHANG Yan-yan(Maritime College of Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China;Zhengzhou International Hub Development and Construction Co.Ltd,Zhengzhou 450000,China)

机构地区：[1]集美大学航海学院,福建厦门361021 [2]郑州国际陆港开发建设有限公司,河南郑州450000

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2018年第18期140-148,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：福建省教育厅(B14085)

摘　　要：为了能够有效预防和减小海上船舶溢油危害，减少经济损失及保护生态环境，增强我国应急救援队伍的应急反应能力，需要对海上船舶溢油危害等级进行科学评价．针对海上船舶溢油事故发生后的危害等级，创新性的提出运用云重心评判法进行评价，并首次将云理论确定指标权重的方法应用到云重心评判法中．首先建立评价指标体系，然后引入云模型的赋权方法确定评价指标的权重，云重心评判法计算加权偏离度，最后与构建的云模型发生器评价模型图对比得出评价结果．云重心评判法能够较好处理定性指标和定量指标问的转化问题，权重云克服了传统评价模型权重确定过程中指标因素的模糊性和随机性问题．通过实例分析表明：提出的云重心评判法在海上船舶溢油危害等级评价中具有较好的实用性和有效性．In order to effectively prevent and reduce the damage of the oil spill accident on the sea, enhance the emergency response capability of emergency rescue team in our country, reduce the economic loss and protect the ecological environment, it is required to scientifically evaluate the degree of harm caused by the oil spill accident on the sea. Firstly, the paper establishes the evaluation index system, and then introduces the cloud model weighting method to determine the weights of the evaluation indexes, using membership cloud gravity center method to calculate the weighted deviation. Finally, the results of cloud generator evaluation model will be used to check and applied in an example. The membership cloud gravity center method can deal with the transformation between qualitative and quantitative indexes better. The weight cloud overcomes the fuzziness and randomness of the index factors in the evaluation of traditional evaluation model weights. Through the analysis of the instance, it is concluded that membership cloud gravity center method has the feasibility and effectiveness in the evaluation of the degree of damage after oil spill.

关 键 词：海上船舶溢油 云重心评判法 云模型 等级评价 

分 类 号：U698.7[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]