大气污染物对北京市常住居民死亡影响的时间序列研究  

Relationship between air pollutants and mortality of resident population in Beijing:a time-series analysis

作　　者：苏健婷[1] 杜婧[1] 王春梅[1] 苏鹏[1] 李刚[1] SU Jian-ting;DU Jing;WANG Chun-mei;SU Peng;LI Gang(Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Beijing Center for Diseases Prevention and Control,Beijing 100013, China)

机构地区：[1]北京市疾病预防控制中心北京市预防医学研究中心,北京100013

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2018年第5期421-424,共4页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：北京市科技计划项目(Z121100000312007)

摘　　要：目的了解北京市大气污染对非意外死亡和慢性阻塞性肺病(chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,COPD)死亡的影响。方法应用广义相加泊松回归模型,控制人口、气象因素、星期几效应和时间趋势等因素的影响后,分析2013—2014年北京市大气污染物日均浓度对非意外死亡和COPD死亡的短期效应。结果 2013年和2014年北京市常住人口标化死亡率分别为3.82‰和3.93‰;PM_(2.5)、NO_2、SO_2日均浓度分别为75.28、33.42和7.68μg/m3。单污染物模型显示,PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2日均浓度每上升10μg/m3,非意外死亡风险分别增加0.18%(95%CI:0.09%~0.27%),1.48%(95%CI:0.76%~2.18%)和1.10%(95%CI:0.69%~1.50%);COPD死亡风险分别增加0.89%(95%CI:0.50%~1.29%),4.71%(95%CI:1.36%~8.17%)和2.60%(95%CI:0.70%~4.54%)。结论大气污染与非意外死亡和COPD死亡风险升高存在正向关联。Objective To explore the effects of air pollutants on non-accidental death and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（COPD）-related mortality of resident population in Beijing. Methods The generalized additive Poisson regression model was employed to estimate the acute effects of air pollutants on non-accidental death and COPD-related mortality of residents after adjustment for population, weather conditions, days of week, time trend and other confounding factors in Beijing,2013-2014. Results The standardized mortality rates of resident population were 3.82 and 3.93 per 1 000 persons in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Mean concentrations of daily PM2.5, NO2 and SO2 were 75.28, 33.42 and 7.68 μg/m3, respectively. The single pollutant models indicated that an increase of 10 μg/m3 PM2.5, SO2 and NO2 resulted in an elevation of 0.18%（95%CI：0.09%-0.27%）, 1.48%（95%CI： 0.76%-2.18%） and 1.10%（95%CI： 0.69%-1.50%） for non-accidental death and 0.89%（95%CI： 0.50%-1.29%）, 4.71%（95%CI： 1.36%-8.17%） and 2.60%（95%CI： 0.70%-4.54%） for COPD-related mortality,respectively. Conclusion Air pollution is associated with an increased risk of non-accidental death and COPD-related mortality of resident population in Beijing.

关 键 词：空气污染 慢性阻塞性肺病 死亡率 时间序列研究 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]