基于洪涝情景模拟的城市公共服务灾害应急响应空间可达性评价——以医疗急救为例  

Evaluating the impact of fluvial flooding on emergency responses accessibility for a mega-city's public services:A case study of emergency medical service

作　　者：殷杰[1,2] 许世远[1,2] 经雅梦 尹占娥[3] 廖邦固[3] YIN Jie;XU Shiyuan;JING Yameng;YIN Zhan＇e;LIAO Banggu(Key Laboratory of Geo-information Science of the Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [3]上海师范大学地理系,上海200234

出　　处：《地理学报》2018年第9期1737-1747,共11页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFE0100700);国家自然科学基金项目(51761135024;41871164);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(17YJAZH111);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2018ECNU-QKT001;2017ECNUKXK013)~~

摘　　要：在气候变化和城市化背景下,日益频发的洪涝灾害业已成为当前中国城市面临的重大挑战,也是城市灾害管理和应急响应研究的热点问题之一。本文旨在构建一套适用于城市尺度的洪涝灾害应急响应能力评估范式,以上海市外环以内中心城区为研究区,采用洪涝数值模拟与GIS网络分析相结合的研究方法,评估了当前以及未来正常条件和不同重现期洪涝情景下,城市关键公共服务部门(120急救)应急响应的空间可达性。结果显示:洪涝淹没强度(范围和水深)、道路交通状况(车流速度)以及应急服务机构的数量和位置共同决定了城市洪涝灾害医疗急救的服务范围及响应时间;由于上海市中心城区洪涝影响范围主要分布在黄浦江两岸2~3 km以内区域,因此洪涝对整个中心城区应急医疗服务的影响有限,主要是位于滨江地区部分医院的应急响应范围较正常状态下明显减少,120急救车辆无法或延迟达到部分救援点。研究表明基于洪涝情景模拟的城市公共服务应急响应空间可达性定量化评估方法,具有重要的科学价值和实践意义,可为中国城市洪涝灾害应急管理提供决策依据。In the context of climate change and urbanization, increase of flood disasters has been a great challenge for Chinese cities and one of the hotspots in natural hazards research. This paper aims to develop a commonly used paradigm for urban flood emergency assessment at city scale. The city center （within outer ring） of Shanghai, China was selected as the study area because it exhibits enhanced consequences of flooding. A simplified hydrodynamic model （FloodMap） that tightly couples a 1D river flow model with a 2D floodplain flow model in urban environment, was used to predict 100-year and 1000-year flood inundation in the current state, the 2030s and the 2050s with relative sea level rise taken into account. Moreover, GIS- based network analysis （service area and closest facility） was employed to evaluate the transportation conditions and emergency responses accessibility of critical public service sectors （Medical Treatment） under normal conditions and multiple flood scenarios. The results show that the performance of the emergency medical services was largely dependent on flood magnitude （extent and depth）, traffic conditions （travel speed） and emergency station positioning. In normal conditions, when no flood restrictions are in place, emergency medical services would be able to reach most parts of the study area within 15 minutes even under significant traffic congestion. As inundation would mainly occur within 2-3 km of Huangpu river banks, flood has a limited influence on emergency medical treatment for the entire region of central Shanghai. Even during 1000-year flood scenario in the 2050s, over half （51%） of the area is predicted to be accessible within 15 minutes. Floodwater may directly compromise a number of hospitals, leading to travel delays and obvious disruption of emergency services in riparian areas. This study suggests that the framework developed for coupling flood modeling with urban emergency response assessment, is proved to be effective and practical, and will pr

关 键 词：城市洪涝 情景模拟 应急响应 空间可达性 上海 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]