中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应  

Changes in air temperature of China in response to global warming hiatus

作　　者：杜勤勤 张明军[1] 王圣杰[1] 车存伟 邱雪[1] 马转转 DU Qinqin;ZHANG Mingjun;WANG Shengjie;CHE Cunwei;QIU Xue;MA Zhuanzhuan(College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《地理学报》2018年第9期1748-1764,共17页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2013CBA01801);西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划项目(NWNU-LKQN-15-8)~~

摘　　要：1998-2012年出现的全球变暖停滞(global warming hiatus)现象,近年来受到各界的广泛关注。基于中国622个气象站的气温数据,研究了全国及三大自然区气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应。结果表明:(1)1998-2012年间,中国气温变化率为-0.221℃/10 a,较1960-1998年增温率下降0.427℃/10 a,存在同全球变暖停滞类似的增温减缓现象,且减缓程度更明显,其中冬季对中国增温减缓的贡献最大,贡献率为74.13%,夏季最小;(2)中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应存在显著的区域差异,从不同自然区看,1998-2012年东部季风区和西北干旱区降温显著,其中东部季风区为中国最强降温区,为全国增温减缓贡献了53.79%,并且具有显著的季节依赖性,减缓期冬季气温下降了0.896℃/10 a,而夏季上升了0.134℃/10 a。青藏高寒区1998-2012年增温率达0.204℃/10 a,对全球变暖停滞的响应并不显著;(3)中国增温减缓可能受太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)负相位、太阳黑子数与太阳总辐照减小等因素的影响;(4)1998-2012年中国虽出现增温减缓现象,但2012年之后气温快速升高,且从周期变化看,未来几年可能持续升温。The global warming hiatus during 1998-2012 has aroused a great public interest in past several years. Based on the air temperature at 622 meteorological stations in China, the response of temperature to global warming hiatus was analyzed on national and regional scales. The main results were as follows： （1） The trend magnitude of air temperature in China was - 0.221 ℃/10 a during 1998-2012, which was lower than the long-term trend during 1960-1998 by 0.427 ℃/10 a. There was a warming hiatus in China that was more obvious than the global mean. Winter played a dominant role （contribution rate was 74.13% ） in the nationwide warming hiatus, and the contribution of summer was the least among the four seasons. （2） The warming hiatus was spatial incoherent in different climate backgrounds in China. Among the three natural zones in China （the monsoon region of eastern China, the arid region of northwestern China and the high frigid region of Tibetan Plateau）, there was a significant cooling in the eastern and northwestern China, especially the eastern China with a contribution rate of 53.79%. In the eastern China, the trend magnitudes were 0.896 ℃/10 a in winter and 0.134 ℃/10 a in summer, respectively. In the Tibetan Plateau, the air temperature has increased by 0.204 ℃/10 a without significant warming hiatus. （3） The warming hiatus in China may be associated with the negative phase of PDO as well as the reduction of sunspot numbers and total solar radiation. （4） Although warming hiatus occurred in China during 1998-2012, the air temperature has rapidly increased after 2012 and is likely to be continuously warming in the next few years.

关 键 词：全球变暖停滞 中国 三大自然区 气温 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467