近50a锡林浩特市降水量变化特征及干旱灾害统计分析  

Analysis of Precipitation variation Characteristics and drought disasters in recent 50 years in Xilinhot

作　　者：张立伟[1] Zhang Liwei(Xilinhot National Climate Observing Station,Inner Mongolia Xilinhot 02600)

机构地区：[1]锡林浩特国家气候观象台,内蒙古锡林浩特026000

出　　处：《内蒙古气象》2018年第3期33-35,共3页Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia

基　　金：内蒙古气象局"内蒙古农牧业精细化区划"项目子专题"内蒙古牧区灾害风险区划"资助

摘　　要：干旱是影响锡林郭勒畜牧业发展最主要的自然灾害之一。文章基于多年降水观测资料,以及《北方草原干旱标准》中降水距平百分率指标的划分依据,详尽分析了锡林浩特市干旱发生的年、季节特征,结果表明:(1)降水量的年代变化呈现明显的规律性:20世纪60、80年代、21世纪前10a年均降水量低于多年平均值,20世纪70、90年代、2010—2014年年降水量高于多年平均值;(2)春季、夏季与年降水量的变化规律一致;冬季降水量的变化比较独特,尤其是2000年以后表现出显著高于多年平均值的变化趋势;(3)锡林浩特市特旱发生概率为9.26%,即10a一特旱;重旱发生概率为20.99%,即5a一重旱;中旱发生概率为24.69%,即4a一中旱;轻旱发生概率为14.81%,即7a一轻旱;无旱发生概率为30.25%,约占1/3。Drought is one of the most important natural disasters which impact animal husbandry development in Xilingol. Based on the precipitation data since 1961 and the division of precipitation anomaly percentage of Drought standard in northern Steppe, we did a detailed analysis of the characteristics of the seasonal and annual drought in Xilinhot, the results showed that （1） The change of precipitation showed obvious age regularity： the average annual precipitation of 1960‵s, 1980‵s, and 2000‵s is less than the average of many years, the average annual precipitation of 1970‵s, 1990‵s, and 2010-2014ismore than the average of many years; （2） The variation of spring precipitation is the same of annual precipitation, and the change of precipitation in winter is more special, after 2000, it shows change trend that is signifcantly higher than the average of many years; （3） The occurrence probability of extremely severe drought in Xilinhot is 9.26%, which is about 1/10; the occurrence probability of severe drought in Xilinhot is 20.99%, which is about 1/5; the occurrence probability of medium drought in Xilinhot is 24.69%, which is about 1/4; the occurrence probability of light drought in Xilinhotis14.81%, which is about 1/7; the occurrence probability of Non drought in Xilinhot is 30.25%, which is about 1/3.

关 键 词：降水距平百分率 年际变化 年代变化 干旱指标 典型草原 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]