产品创新如何影响客户差异化偏好?——来自光伏项目技术选型的实证数据(2013—2016)  

How product innovation impacts customers' heterogeneous preference?——Sample from Projects' technical selection in PV industry(2013-2016)

作　　者：沈曦[1] 欧双双 SHEN Xi;OU Shuang-shuang

机构地区：[1]常州天合光能有限公司战略市场部

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2018年第5期5-36,共32页Review of Industrial Economics

摘　　要：传统的离散选择模型由于忽略了选择主体的异质性,在计量结果的无偏性和有效性上受到了现代计量经济研究的挑战。本文在经典离散选择模型的基础上同时引入了选择主体的异质性(Heterogeneity)和重复购买行为(Repeated purchase),建立了更加有效的计量分析框架。依托模拟矩估计法(SMM),实现了参数的有效估计和测量。依托光伏产业的项目选型样本分析,以及近年来的突出新技术——跟踪系统+双面发电笔者对项目的产品选型决策行为进行了实证分析,结果发现,相比传统的离散选择模型,添加异质性假设以后,参数估计的效率得到显著提高,尤其在弹性分析层面,新模型估计的产品的交叉价格敏感性得到了显著的提高。实证结果指出,作为提升光伏电站整体效率的有效解决方案,跟踪系统等配套技术的市场导入更快倒逼了传统技术产品的性价比提升,加剧了下游产品和系统技术之间的竞争。在福利分析层面,实证结果发现,新技术在市场开拓期能同时提高需求方和企业供给方的福利水平,尤其是率先进入这一行业的企业,能在一段时间内维持高于平均水平的盈利能力。但是随着产品成熟和行业持续的技术进步,企业的利润增长趋势很快将遭遇拐点,并随即被压缩;与之形成反差的是,下游客户的价值却能持续增长。Classical discrete choice model （DCM） is blamed due to ignoring heterogeneity of customer and product in its structural framework. The robustness and efficiency of its empirical estimation is challenged by recent researching papers. Introducing heterogeneity and repeated purchasing behavior, this paper organizes and presents emerging and completed estimation model under discrete choice framework. Based on simulated moment method （SMM）, parameters can be estimated unbiased and efficiently. Empirical study, employing sample from PV industry, discusses technical selection behaviors. The introduction of emerging technologies, represented by tracker system plus biracial module, greatly shocks market competition structure. Empirical result reveals that augmented DCM improves the statistical estimation efficiency of parameters. Especially, for elasticity calculation, emerging technologies aggravate the competition by simulating the price sensitivity of traditional products. Further study focusing on welfare discussion indicates that during market exploring stage, both customers and suppliers are benefited by emerging technologies. However, price premium, enjoyed by firms providing emerging products, faces inflection point soon. In long run, firms＇ margin quickly shrinks, with continuous growth of customer surplus and value.

关 键 词：差异化选择 离散选择模型 模拟矩估计 光伏 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F274