房地产发展、经济增长动力要素、外部环境与经济增长效应研究——来自2000—2016年经济运行数据实证  

Relations of Real Estate Development,Economic Growth Driving Factors,External Environment and Economic Growth Effect in China:Based on Time Series Data during 2000-2016

作　　者：刘超[1,2] 李江源 王超 高扬[1,2] 刘宸琦 禹海波[1,2] 李健 Liu Chao;Li Jiangyuan;Wang Chao;Gao Yang;Liu Chenqi;Yu Haibo;Li Jtan(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124;Research Base of Beijing Modern Manufacturing Development,Beijing 100124;Department of Mathematics and Computer Science,Dickinson College,Carlisle 17013)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]北京现代制造业发展研究基地,北京100124 [3]迪金森学院数学与计算机科学系,卡莱尔17013

出　　处：《管理评论》2018年第8期16-31,共16页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61773029;61273230;61603011;61603010);北京市社科基金研究基地项目(16JDGLC005);北京市属高校高水平教师队伍建设支持计划长城学者培养计划项目(CIT&TCD20170304);北京现代制造业发展研究基地

摘　　要：采用2000-2016年经济运行时间序列数据,通过边限检验法和MRW模型,研究房地产发展、经济增长动力要素和外部环境对经济增长效应的影响。研究表明:商品房销售额的增加对我国经济增长有推动作用;房地产过度投资对经济增长存在一定的阻碍作用;房价持续上涨对经济增长的作用具有不稳定性。商品房销售额对经济增长的促进作用会随着经济增长动力要素中人力资本和物质资本存量的提高而降低。外部环境(国际利率水平、原油价格、人民币汇率)对经济的冲击会削弱房地产发展对经济增长的影响。人力资本、第三产业增加值、第二产业增加值对经济增长的贡献较大,出口总额对经济增长的贡献具有不稳定性。在经济增长动力要素对经济增长产生影响的前提下,房地产发展对经济增长的影响会降低。本文研究结果有助于揭示房地产发展对经济增长的作用机制,为房地产政策的制定提供理论依据。Based on China＇s time series of economic data from 2000 to 2016 and the Mankiw-Romer-Weil（ MRW） model,we investigate the impacts of real estate development,driving factors of economic growth and external environment on China economic growth by utilizing bounds testing approach. The empirical results show that the increase of sales of commercial housing has a positive effect on China＇s economic growth,but its growth effect will decrease with the increase of human capital and physical capital stock in the driving factors of economic growth. Excessive investment in real estate development has some hindrance to economic growth. And the effect of rising house prices on economic growth is unstable. Besides,the impact of the external environment on the economy（ international interest rate,crude oil price,RMB exchange rate） will weaken the effect on economic growth of real estate development. Furthermore,we find that human capital plays an active role in promoting economic growth while the development of secondary industry and tertiary industry has become a significant impetus to the economic growth,but the contribution of exports to economic growth is not stable. Finally,under the premise that the motive force of economic growth has an impact on economic growth,the impact of real estate development on economic growth will be reduced.

关 键 词：房地产发展 经济增长效应 边限检验法 MRW模型 经济增长动力要素 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济] F299.23