中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易潜力和贸易效率及其决定因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究  

Trade Potential and Trade Efficiency of China and Countries along the Belt and Road: Based on the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

作　　者：李萍[1,2] LI Ping

机构地区：[1]清华大学国情研究院 [2]清华大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《国际商务研究》2018年第5期5-16,共12页International Business Research

基　　金：国家高端智库建设项目(项目编号:20155010298)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文将随机前沿分析引入贸易引力模型,通过构建随机前沿引力模型,分析中国与"一带一路"沿线国家双边贸易流量的决定因素,测算贸易潜力,评估贸易效率;通过构建贸易非效率模型,从关税水平、贸易便利化水平、运输便利化水平、经济自由化程度、是否建立自由贸易区等5个维度进一步探究贸易非效率的构成因素,找出贸易阻力,并提出提升贸易效率、释放贸易潜力的可行策略。This paper conducts an empirical study on trade efficiency and trade potential of China and countries along the Belt and Road by introducing the stochastic frontier analysis into trade gravity model. Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model, determinants of bilateral trade flows are analyzed, trade potential is measured and trade efficiency is evaluated. Component factors of trade non-efficiency are explored through setting up a trade non-efficiency model which taking into account the tariff, trade facilitation, transport facilitation, economic liberalization and FTA factors. According to the empirical research results, strategy of improving trade efficiency and fulfill trade potential are proposed.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 贸易潜力 贸易效率 随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]