基于多灾耦合综合评估的采煤工作面安全评价研究  

Research on safety evaluation of coal face based on comprehensive multi-hazard coupling assessment

作　　者：张爱然[1] 张连军 彭英健[1] 白玉花 姚有利[1] Zhang Airan;Zhang Lianjun;Peng Yingjian;Bai Yuhua;Yao Youli(School of Coal Engineering,Datong University,Datong,Shanxi 037003,China;Xuzhou Boan Science and Technology Development Co.Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221008,China)

机构地区：[1]山西大同大学煤炭工程学院,山西省大同市037003 [2]徐州博安科技发展有限责任公司,江苏省徐州市221008

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2018年第9期97-102,共6页China Coal

基　　金：山西省社科联项目(SSKLZDKT2017120);山西大同大学校级青年科研项目(2009Q30)

摘　　要：为了提高煤矿安全评价的准确性,基于井下多致灾因子并存且相互影响的事实,采用多灾耦合综合风险评估方法对寺塔煤矿首采工作面进行安全评价研究。通过确定瓦斯、煤尘、自然发火、冲击地压和地下水5种致灾因子的初始危险指数和耦合规则,进而得到耦合后的危险指数;根据承灾体对不同灾害的脆弱性分析,得出发生不同灾害时工作面的脆弱性指数;最后根据风险的不确定性特点,采用由高斯隶属度函数确定的风险矩阵模糊推理模型确定工作面的风险等级。结果表明:该工作面的综合风险属于潜在低风险的程度为0.43%,属于潜在中风险的程度高达99.03%,属于潜在高风险的程度为0.54%。采用该方法提高了采煤工作面安全评价的合理性,能反映发生不同灾害时承灾体应对的差异性,有助于制定风险缓解措施,提高安全管理水平。In order to improve accuracy of safety assessment,based on the fact of multiple interactional disaster-inducing factors in the mine,a comprehensive multi-hazard coupling risk assessment method was used for safety evaluation on primary working face in Sita Coal Mine.By determining initial risk index and coupling rule of gas,coal dust,spontaneous combustion,rock burst and underground water,the coupled risk indexes were achieved;according to the vulnerability analysis of hazard-affected body for each single hazard,the vulnerability indexes of working face for different disaster were achieved;according to indeterminacy of risk,the risk rank of working face was determined based on risk matrix fuzzy reasoning model that was determined by Gaussian membership function.The results showed that the comprehensive risk degree of this face 0.43% was potential low-risk,99.03% was potential middle-risk and 0.54% was potential high-risk.The assessment method improved the reasonability of safety evaluation of working face and showed response difference of hazard-affected body for different hazard,it was conducive to make risk mitigation measures and improve safety management level.

关 键 词：多灾耦合 采煤工作面 致灾因子 危险指数 脆弱性指数 模糊推理模型 安全评价 

分 类 号：TD79[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]