突发事件中网民负面情绪决策的BDI模型  

Internet Users' Negative Emotion Decision-making in Emergencies Based on the Rule-based Reasoning BDI Model

作　　者：凌晨[1] 冯俊文[1] 杨爽[1] 吴鹏[1] LING Chen;FENG Jun-wen;YANG Shuang;WU Peng(School of Economic and Management,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China)

机构地区：[1]南京理工大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《系统工程》2018年第4期51-60,共10页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71774084);江苏省"青蓝工程2016(15)"

摘　　要：本文基于"信念-愿望-意图(BDI)"模型,建立网民负面情绪的BDI规则推理模型,设计网民负面情绪BDI推理算法,分析突发事件中不同阶段、不同类型网民在特定政府应急响应措施的行为规律,在此基础上,通过典型的社会安全类突发事件微博数据进行了仿真实验和模型验证,从而揭示网民负面情绪的动因和演变规律,支持政府应急响应策略的制定。本文建立的网民负面情绪的BDI规则推理模型可以适用于突发事件网民负面情绪的调节建模。本文的研究结论指出政府采取不同类型、不同强度的应急响应措施,会影响网民的负面情绪变化,采取减弱和重建两类措施能收到更好的效果,在事件爆发阶段要提高调节的频率,在事件其他阶段也要适时进行调节,才能达到最好的引导和调控效果。政府进行调节会在很大程度上影响交互型网民,但对自我中心型网民的影响较小。In this paper, according to the ＂Belief,Desire,Intention＂（BDI） model, the BDI reasoning model on negative emotion of Internet users is established to analyze the behavior law of different types and stages of Internet users in specific government emergency response measures. On this basis, this research dose simulation experiment and model validation with micro-blog data of typical social security emergency. It reveals the motivation and evolution law of negative emotions of Internet users and supports the formulation of the government emergency response strategy. The BDI reasoning model of negative emotion of Internet users can be applied to the regulation model of negative emotion of Internet users. The conclusions of this paper indicate that the government adopts different types and intensities of emergency response measures, which will affect the negative emotions of Internet users. The two steps, reduction and the reconstruction, have been taken to achieve better results than other measures. At the outbreak phases of the event, the frequency of regulation should be improved by government. However, at the other phases, the government should make adjustments in time so that the most excellent of guidance and control effect can be achieved. Government regulation will largely affect the interactive Internet users, but it has fewer influences on the self-centered Internet users.

关 键 词：突发事件 网民负面情绪 BDI模型 应急响应 

分 类 号：G641[文化科学—高等教育学]