国家粮食进口的决定因素：来自国际面板数据的证据  

Determinants of Grain Imports:Evidence from Transnational Panel Data

作　　者：高道明 田志宏[2] GAO Daoming;TIAN Zhihong

机构地区：[1]清华大学"一带一路"战略研究院 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2018年第9期25-37,共13页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：农业部软科学项目“农业补贴政策‘黄转绿’问题研究”(D201714);农业财政项目“我国粮食统计口径调整研究”(05162130111242003).

摘　　要：在国内粮食连年增产的同时我国粮食进口量大幅上升,引起了人们对粮食安全问题的关注与忧虑。识别粮食进口的决定因素,有助于制定准确的粮食安全政策。本文基于供需平衡视角构建了粮食进口决定因素的分析框架,利用128个国家1961—2013年的面板数据进行了实证检验,旨在大视野下获取国际经验。结果表明,经济发展对粮食进口的影响具有"倒N型"曲线规律和阶段性特征,即粮食进口在经济发展早期趋于下降,之后随着经济增长而攀升,进入高收入阶段后再次降低;耕地资源越丰裕的国家越早跨越转折点,从而进入粮食进口与经济增长脱钩的发展阶段。研究还发现,增加库存水平有助于平抑粮食进口。基于中国宏观数据的分析发现,经济增长是影响中国粮食进口的核心因素,未来很长一段时期里粮食进口依赖将持续加深。不过,考虑到粮食进口具有趋于下降的长期趋势,政策制定者应注意避免延续以往依靠强力措施刺激粮食增产的做法。China＇s grain imports rise sharply while domestic production increases year after year, which causes the huge concern and anxiety about food security. Identifying the determinants of grain imports can help make precise food security policies. This paper presents an analytical framework for the determinants of grain imports from the perspective of supply and demand balance, and empirically analyzes the determinants of grain imports based on transnational panel data of 128 countries from 1961 to 2013. The paper finds that the grain imports vary along an inverted N-shaped curve with economic growth; the country with more arable land goes across the inflection point of the inverted N-shaped curve earlier. The results also suggest that increasing the stocks can reduce grain import dependency. Further research based on the macro data reveals that economic growth is a crucial determinant affecting China＇s grain imports, and its grain import dependency will continue to climb for a long time in the future. However, given the long-term trend towards a decline in grain imports, policymakers should be careful to avoid the continuation of strong measures to stimulate grain production.

关 键 词：粮食供求平衡 粮食进口 经济增长 耕地禀赋 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61