2000年以来我国用水效率指标变化趋势研究  

Study on Water Use Efficiency Indicators Variation Trend in China Since 2000

作　　者：张国玉[1] 谢晨 李舒 许峰[1] 靳顶[1] ZHANG Guoyu;XIE Chen;LI Shu;XU Feng;JIN Ding(Water Resources Management Center,MWR,Beijing 100053,China;Office of Administration,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Department of Water Resources Research,Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部水资源管理中心,北京100053 [2]黄河水利委员会办公室,河南郑州450003 [3]黄河水利科学研究院水资源所,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2018年第10期36-39,60,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：水利部水资源项目(126216001000150008);水利部水资源管理业务课题

摘　　要：针对实行最严格水资源管理制度中用水效率的万元国内生产总值用水量指标和万元工业增加值用水量指标,将2000—2015年的这两个指标换算成不变价研究其变化趋势,利用Mann-Kendall-Pettitt突变点检测方法和经济学趋势模型对指标变化趋势进行分析,探索用水效率变化机理,建立预测模型模拟未来几年的用水效率主要指标变化情况,结果表明:在现有经济、节水措施、工艺技术等平稳发展条件下,进一步强化工业节水工作,可以实现2020年全国万元国内生产总值用水量和万元工业增加值用水量的控制目标。The two indicators stipulated by the Strictest Water Resources Management System,of water consumption per 10 000 Yuan GDP and per 10 000 Yuan industrial added value over the period of 2000 to 2015 were converted into constant price to analyze their change trends.Mann-Kendall-Pettitt abrupt change-point and economic trend model were applied to exploring the change mechanism and hence developing a forecasting model to simulate the main indicators change in the near future. The results show that the target of controlling the indicators in2020 can be achieved under the steady development conditions of the existing social policy,economic condition,water-saving measures as well as further strengthening industrial water-saving work have been satisfied.

关 键 词：用水效率 水资源管理 MK-P突变点检测 经济学趋势模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]