面板数据模型在湖南省干旱敏感传染病筛选中的应用  

Application of panel data model in screening of drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Hunan Province

作　　者：王宁 黄金明[3] 丁国永 李学文 WANG Ning;HUANG Jinming;DING Guoyong;LI Xuewen(Section of Health Promotion,Shandong Provincial Health and Family Planning Publicity and Education Center,Jinan 250002,Shandong,China;Department of Environment and Health,School of Public Health,Shandong University,Jinan 250012,Shandong,China;Department for Fluorosis and Kaschin-Beck Disease Control and Research,Institute of Endemic Disease Control Shandong Province,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Taishan Medical University,Taian 271016,Shandong,China;Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center,Jinan 250012,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省卫生和计划生育宣传教育中心健康促进科,山东济南250002 [2]山东大学公共卫生学院环境卫生学系,山东济南250012 [3]山东省地方病防治研究所氟中毒与大骨节病防治研究科,山东济南250014 [4]泰山医学院公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,山东泰安271016 [5]山东大学气候变化与健康研究中心,山东济南250012

出　　处：《山东大学学报（医学版）》2018年第8期70-75,共6页Journal of Shandong University:Health Sciences

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)(2012CB955500-955502)

摘　　要：目的筛选湖南省干旱所致的敏感传染病,为旱期传染病预防控制提供科学依据。方法计算湖南省干旱期间各传染病发病率,采用Spearman秩次相关分析探讨干旱与湖南省常见传染病发病的关系,利用面板数据模型筛选干旱所致的敏感传染病。结果 Spearman相关分析显示乙肝、丙肝、细菌性痢疾、流行性腮腺炎、风疹、水痘、肺结核的发病数与干旱具有相关性(P均<0.05),其相应滞后期分别为0、0、1、5、5、3和4周。面板数据模型分析显示干旱可以增加乙肝、丙肝、细菌性痢疾、流行性腮腺炎、风疹、水痘的发病风险,其干旱期与非干旱期的发病比值IRR(95%CI)分别为1.35(1.29~1.40)、1.40(1.22~1.60)、1.42(1.31~1.54)、1.31(1.18~1.45)、1.70(1.45~2.00)、2.86(2.55~3.21);另外,干旱可降低肺结核发病风险(IRR=0.72,95%CI:0.70~0.74)。结论乙肝、丙肝、细菌性痢疾、流行性腮腺炎、风疹、水痘为湖南省干旱敏感传染病。Objective To identify drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Hunan Province,and provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of the infectious diseases during the drought period. Methods The morbidity of infectious diseases in Hunan Province during the drought period was calculated,and Spearman rank correlation analysis was done to investigate the effects of drought on infectious diseases,in addition,a panel data model was used to screen the drought-sensitive infectious diseases. Results Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that incident number of hepatitis B,hepatitis C,bacillary dysentery,mumps,rubella,varicella and pulmonary tuberculosis were closely correlatedwith drought（ all P 〈0. 05）,and the corresponding lag periods were 0,0,1,5,5,3 and 4 weeks,respectively.The panel data model results showed that drought can increase the risk of hepatitis B,hepatitis C,bacillary dysentery,mumps,rubella and varicella,and the corresponding incidence rate ratios（ IRRs） and 95%CI were 1. 35（ 1. 29-1. 40）,1. 40（ 1. 22-1. 60）,1. 42（ 1. 31-1. 54）,1. 31（ 1. 18-1. 45）,1. 70（ 1. 45-2. 00） and 2. 86（ 2. 55-3. 21）,respectively.However,drought could reduce the risk of tuberculosis,and IRR（ 95%CI） was 0. 72（ 0. 70-0. 74）. Conclusion Hepatitis B,hepatitis C,bacillary dysentery,mumps,rubella and varicella are the drought-sensitive infectious diseases in Hunan Province.

关 键 词：干旱 传染病 筛选 面板数据模型 敏感 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]