菏泽市与威海市气温对流行性腮腺炎发病的影响  

Effect of temperature on the incidence of mumps in Heze City and Weihai City

作　　者：张丹丹 王旭 许勤勤 郑兆磊 王珮竹 李吉庆 刘静 许青[2] 李秀君 ZHANG Dandan;WANG Xu;XU Qinqin;ZHENG Zhaolei;WANG Peizhu;LI Jiqing;LIU Jing;XU Qing;LI Xiujun(Department of Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Shandong University,Jinan 250012,Shandong,China;Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center,Jinan 250012,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学公共卫生学院生物统计学系,山东济南250012 [2]山东省疾病预防控制中心,山东济南250014 [3]山东大学气候变化与健康研究中心,山东济南250012

出　　处：《山东大学学报（医学版）》2018年第8期88-94,113,共8页Journal of Shandong University:Health Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81673238);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2016HM75)

摘　　要：目的通过研究2012~2014年山东省菏泽市与威海市日平均气温对流行性腮腺炎发病的影响,为流行性腮腺炎的防控提供政策依据。方法收集菏泽市与威海市2012年1月1日~2014年12月31日流行性腮腺炎疾病日监测数据以及同期气象数据,通过构建分布滞后非线性模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势、星期几效应以及其他气象因素的情况下研究两市日平均气温对流行性腮腺炎发病风险的影响。结果 2012~2014年菏泽市共报告流行性腮腺炎2 669例,威海市1 838例,菏泽市年发病例数均较威海市高,两市男性发病例数均高于女性,且均以学生、幼托儿童、散居儿童为主。菏泽市以日平均气温中位数16.10℃为参照,日平均气温在最低气温-7.10℃,滞后8 d时,流行性腮腺炎的发病风险达到最大,相对危险度RR=1.06(95%CI:1.00~1.13),威海市以12.55℃为参照,日平均气温在最低温度-9.20℃,当天对流行性腮腺炎发病风险最大,RR=1.29(95%CI:1.00~1.66)。结论日平均气温对流行性腮腺炎的影响呈非线性且其对菏泽市与威海市流行性腮腺炎发病达到最大危险效应的滞后时间不同,应密切监测气象因素,因地制宜,做好防控工作。Objective To provide a reference for the prevention and control of mumps by exploring the impact of daily mean temperature on its incidence during 2012 and 2014 in Heze City and Weihai City of Shandong Province. Methods The daily monitoring data of mumps and meteorological data of Heze City and Weihai City from Jan. 1,2012 to Dec. 31,2014 were collected. The distribution lag nonlinear model was constructed to investigate the effects of daily mean temperature on the incidence of mumps when the long-term trends,seasonal trends,day-of-week effects and other meteorological factors were controlled. Results During this period,a total of 2 669 and 1 838 mumps cases were reported in Heze City and Weihai City,respectively,with a higher annual incidence in Heze City. There were more male cases than female cases in both cities,especially among students,infants and scattered children. In Heze City,with the median daily temperature of 16. 10 ℃ as a reference,when the lowest daily temperature was-7. 10 ℃,the risk of mumps reached the highest on the 8 -（th） lag day,RR =1.06（ 95%CI： 1.00-1.13）. In Weihai City,with 12.55℃ as a reference,when the lowest daily temperaturewas-9. 20 ℃,the risk of mumps was the highest on lag day 0,RR = 1. 29（ 95%CI： 1. 00-1. 66）. Conclusion The daily mean temperature has a nonlinear effect on the incidence of mumps,and it has different lag time in Heze City and Weihai City. The meteorological factors should be closely monitored for effective prevention and control of mumps.

关 键 词：气象因素 日平均气温 流行性腮腺炎 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R183.1[医药卫生—流行病学]