“一带一路”背景下中俄双边贸易效率及潜力研究——基于随机前沿引力模型(SFGM)  

Research on the Efficiency and Potentiality of Sino-Russia Bilateral Trade under “the Belt & Road Initiative”——Based on the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

作　　者：刘用明[1] 朱源秋 吕一清[2] LIU Yong-ming;ZHU Yuan-qiu;LV Yi-qing(School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610064,China;Shenzhen Tourism College,Jinan University,Shenzhen 518053,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院 [2]暨南大学深圳旅游学院

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2018年第5期78-84,共7页Reform of Economic System

摘　　要：自"一带一路"倡议提出以来,中国与沿线国家的经贸合作得到进一步的发展。但本文基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析发现,中国与俄罗斯的贸易往来中依然存在非效率因素的影响。中俄双边贸易效率虽保持了较高水平,但中方对俄方出口效率明显偏低。样本期内,中方对俄方出口及进出口贸易的潜力提升空间持续扩大。中国应积极推进"一带一路"建设,进一步完善中俄双边对话及合作机制,重视贸易服务体系构建,开展中俄自贸区建设的可行性探讨,以充分挖掘双方贸易潜力。The economic and trade cooperation between China and the ＂the Belt Road＂ area has substantially developed. However,the empirical study based on the Stochastic Frontier Gravity model（ SFGM） reveals that there are inefficient factors that constrain the bilateral trade within China and Russia. The bilateral trade efficiency between China and Russia remains to be high while the export efficiency from China to Russia is relatively lower. And the potentiality of export and bilateral trade between them are expanding throughout the sample period. In order to sufficiently explore potentiality,China is supposed to synergize with the＂the Belt Road＂countries,attends to improve the service system and stress on the possibility of the establishment of＂Sino-Russian＂free trade zone.

关 键 词：贸易效率 贸易潜力 随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]