基于CESM预测系统对全球关键海区海温主要模态后报能力评估  

Evaluation of the hindcasting main SSTA modes of the global key regions based on the CESM forecasting system

作　　者：张守文[1] 宋春阳[1] 王辉[1,2] 姜华[1,2] 杜凌[3] Zhang Shouwen;Song Chunyang;Wang Hui;Jiang Hua;Du Ling(National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,State Oceanic Administration,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting,State Oceanic Administration,Beijing 100081,China;College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Science,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081 [2]国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京100081 [3]中国海洋大学大气与海洋学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋学报》2018年第9期18-30,共13页

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0604203);国家海洋局海洋公益性专项(201505013);国家重点研发计划海洋环境安全保障专项"中国近海与太平洋高分辨率生态环境数值预报系统"(2016YFC1401605)

摘　　要：基于Had ISST、ERSST和OISST 3种再分析海表面温度数据集,对CESM1全球气候预测系统模拟的重点海域海温的主要模态进行了评估。结果表明,模式能够基本再现再分析资料表征的海表面温度异常时空特征,5个关键海区海表面温度异常EOF分析前两个模态,超前1个月的后报结果均有较高的可预报性。特别是热带太平洋第一模态(ENSO模态),超前3个月的后报与再分析相关系数能够达到0.79,能够为ENSO的预报提供宝贵参考。模式不可避免的存在较多误差,空间上表现为海表面温度异常(SSTA)显著区域的范围以及位置的差异,特别值得注意的是热带印度洋SSTA第一模态存在一个伪印度洋偶极子模态,同时此海区也是3种再分析资料SSTA第一模态空间差异最大的区域;时间序列上均表现出异常高频信号和异常波动情况,误差的大小通常是由同化、超前1月后报、超前3月后报逐渐增大,体现出初始误差随着积分逐渐积累的特征。热带大西洋SSTA第一模态时间序列前5年的位相存在明显偏差,将其剔除后,其时间序列与再分析资料的相关性有实质性改善。Main SSTA modes of the global key regions simulated by the CESM global climate forecasting system are evaluated based on the Had ISST、ERSST and OISST reanalysis datasets. It has shown that the model can able to simulate the main SSTA characteristics of the five key regions which are identified by the reanalysis datasets. The 1 month ahead hindcasting results of the five key regions show relative high predictability in the first two SSTA EOF modes,especially for the first mode（ ENSO） of the tropical Pacific Ocean SSTA with a correlation coefficient 0. 79 between the 3 months ahead hindcasting results and the reanalysis results which can provide valuable references for the ENSO forecasting. Many errors exist inevitably of the model which mainly show in the difference of the range and the location of the SSTA key regions in terms of space. It should be noted that the model shows a false IOD mode of the first tropical Indian Ocean SSTA mode. Meanwhile,three reanalysis datasets also show largest spatial differences of the first SSTA mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Time series of the model all show anomalous high frequency signals and fluctuations,the magnitude of the errors are gradually increased by assimilation,1 month ahead and 3 months ahead,it shows the rule that initial error accumulates gradually with integral. Phase of the first 5 years of the first tropical Atlantic Ocean SSTA mode deviates greatly with the reanalysis results,the results show great improved with the first 5 years excluded.

关 键 词：海温模态 预测 CESM 关键海区 

分 类 号：P731.31[天文地球—海洋科学]