人民币汇率弹性变动与货币政策目标  

Flexible Changes in RMB Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy Objectives

作　　者：田国强 尹航[2] TIAN Guo-qiang;YIN Hang

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学金融学院 [2]中国人民银行大连市中心支行

出　　处：《金融论坛》2018年第9期31-41,共11页Finance Forum

摘　　要：本文基于开放经济的均衡模型,实证分析汇率弹性与货币政策目标间的相互作用机制。研究结论表明:在新古典的货币政策目标框架中,较低的汇率弹性具有较高的通胀管理效率,而汇率弹性的增加有助于通过汇率波动释放增长压力。央行在产出与通胀目标间的权衡决定了汇率弹性的实际水平。当人民币汇率进入升值通道时,央行是否愿意牺牲一定的货币政策效力而坚持推进人民币汇率市场化进程,将决定着未来人民币汇率弹性的变动。Based on the equilibrium model of open economy, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the interaction mechanism between exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy objectives. The conclusions of the paper indicate that,in the framework of the neoclassical monetary policy, a lower exchange rate flexibility has a higher inflation management efficiency, and the increase in exchange rate flexibility helps release the growth pressure through exchange rate fluctuation. The central bank＇s trade-off between output and inflation targets determines the actual level of exchange rate flexibility. When the RMB exchange rate enters the appreciation channel, whether the central bank is willing to give up certain monetary policy effects and insist on promoting the marketization of the RMB exchange rate will determine the future changes in the flexibility of RMB exchange rate.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 汇率弹性 货币政策目标 升值恐惧 央行反应函数 

分 类 号：G18[文化科学] G32