基于态势预测的非常规突发事件应急决策模型构建  

Construction of Emergency Decision Model Based on Situation Prediction

作　　者：杨继君[1,2] 曾子轩 Yang Jijun;ZengZixuan(Emergency Management Training Center,Chinese Academy of Governance,Beijing 100089,China;School of Management Science and Engineering,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,China.)

机构地区：[1]国家行政学院应急管理培训中心,北京100089 [2]广西财经学院管理科学与工程学院,南宁530003

出　　处：《统计与决策》2018年第18期43-47,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(91324203);国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AGL017);中国博士后基金资助项目(2015M570995);广西省社会科学基金重点项目(15AGL003)

摘　　要：鉴于非常规突发事件的一系列特殊属性,应急决策者必须在特殊的决策环境下快速制定应对方案并加以实施,然而责任追究机制致使应急决策者不能随心所欲地随便决策,通常需要在简单分析工具的支持下制订科学合理的应对方案。博弈论作为一种简单的决策分析工具,为应急决策问题提供了新的解决途径。文章首先阐述应急决策过程实质上是一个应急决策者和突发事件间的序贯博弈过程,随后以序贯博弈为工具构建了基于信息流的应急决策模型,应急决策者对非常规突发事件演化态势进行预测的基础上制订和调整应急决策方案。最后算例分析验证了所建模型的有效性和可行性。In view of a series of special attnoutes （n u quickly formulate and implement response plans in a special decision-making environment. Yet accountability prevents emergency decision-makers from making decisions as they please. Thus it is usually necessary to develop a scientific and reasonable solution with the support of simple analysis tools. Game theory as a simple tool of decision analysis provides a new way to support the emergency decision. This paper firstly illustrates that emergency decision-making process is essentially a sequential games between decision-maker and emergency. And then by using sequential games, the model of emergency decision based on information flow is designed so that emergency decision-makers can make and adjust emergency decision plans on the basis of predicting the evolution trend of uneonventional emergency events. Finally a numerical example is given to demonstrate the availability and feasibility of the proposed model.

关 键 词：非常规突发事件 序贯博弈 态势预测 信息流 

分 类 号：TP393.07[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]