人民币汇率变动对出口持续时间的影响:以中美农产品出口为例  

A Study on the Effects of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Export Duration:Based on Sino-US Agricultural Product Export

作　　者：潘家栋 PAN Jia-dong

机构地区：[1]中共浙江省委党校经济学教研部

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2018年第9期97-112,共16页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(16AJY002);2018年度浙江理工大学全球共享经济研究院课题(18GXJJ01)

摘　　要：文章构建企业微观模型论述汇率变动影响出口贸易持续时间的一般化机制,并选取2000~2015年HS6分位码下中国对美国农产品的出口数据来估计出口生存函数,构建probit、logit、cloglog离散时间模型实证检验人民币汇率变动等因素对出口持续时间的影响。结论表明,汇率下降会增加出口产品需求及出口产品种类,提高出口产品的生存风险;中国对美国农产品出口贸易持续时间平均值为6. 51,中位时间为5,处于较短的持续时间水平;人民币汇率变动对中美农产品出口持续时间具有显著影响,且人民币贬值会提升中美农产品出口持续时间,但产品特征层面的影响因素却与农产品出口持续时间存在显著负相关。据此,文章提出稳定人民币汇率对于出口贸易可持续发展至关重要、推进供给侧结构性改革来提升出口农产品的质量等政策启示。By constructing an enterprise microscopic model to explore the general mechanism of how RMB exchange rate fluctuation affects export duration, this paper estimates the export survival function based on the data of China＇s agricultural product export to the USA under the HS6 code from 2000 to 2015. The paper also conducts an empirical study on the effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on export duration by constructing the model of probit,logit and cloglog. The results show that： exchange rate depreciation will increase the demand and types of export products, but will also increase their survival risk due to the rise of exchange rate volatility; the average duration of Sino-US agricultural product export is 6.51 while the median time is 5, which is at a short level; RMB exchange rate fluctuation has a significant impact on the duration of Sino-US agricultural product export and RMB depreciation will increase the duration but the product features exert negative effect on the duration of agricultural product export. In view of this, this paper puts forward the policy suggestions to stabilize RMB exchange rate for sustainable development of export trade and promote the supply-side structural reforms for the improvement of the quality of agricultural export products.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 出口持续时间 中美农产品 生存分析 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]