多种细网格模式对湖南水库流域面雨量的预报检验  

Verification of Various Fine Mesh Models on Areal Rainfall Prediction

作　　者：廖春花 刘红武 张永锋 杨令 Liao Chunhua;Liu Hongwu;Zhang Yongfeng;Yang Ling(Hunan Meteorological Service Center,Changsha 410118;Hunan Meteorological Observatory,Changsha 410118;Yiyang Meteorological Service,Hunan,Yiyang 413000)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象服务中心,长沙410118 [2]湖南省气象台,长沙410118 [3]湖南省益阳市气象局,益阳413000

出　　处：《气象科技》2018年第4期724-728,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：湖南省气象局预报员专项(XQKJ16C020);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2017-050);2016-2017年湖南省气象局能力建设项目(YBNL16-12-1)共同资助

摘　　要：选取2016年5—12月欧洲ECMWF、日本JMA、T639、德国GERMAN、湖南本地细网格HNGRIB的高分辨率降水预报产品,从预报时效、流域区域、面雨量量级、影响系统和预报偏差五个方面,检验分析了各模式对湖南水库流域面雨量的预报效果。结果表明:各细网格模式对流域面雨量的预报能力随预报时效的增加而下降,但ECMWF和JMA的预报效果相对较好且稳定,T639最差;各模式在非汛期10—12月的流域面雨量预报效果要优于汛期5—9月;随着面雨量量级增大,各模式的预报能力均下降,特别是对30mm以上的面雨量预报能力非常低;各模式对高空槽降水的预报能力最好,对西南低涡降水的预报能力最差;ECMWF、JMA、HNGRIB在各个时效上存在面雨量预报偏小的情况,而GERMAN、T639随着时效的增加,面雨量预报偏大的情况增多。Based on the high-resolution numerical forecast precipitation products from the ECMWF,JMA,T639,GERMAN,Hunan local fine grid HNGRIB from May to December of 2016,the forecast effectiveness of the models on the Hunan reservoir area rainfall is tested from the aspects of forecast lead time,areas,precipitation intensity grades,influence systems and forecast biases.The results show that the accuracy of various fine mesh models for area rainfall decreases generally with lead time,while the forecast effectiveness of ECMWF and JMA is good and stable,and the stability of the T639 is the worst.The area rainfall forecast effectiveness in non-flood season（October to December）is better than that in flood season（May to September）.With the increase of the rainfall level,the prediction capability of each model decreases,especially the areal rainfall over 30 mm,is poor.The prediction capability of each model for vortex precipitation is the worst,but the best for upper trough precipitation.The area rainfall forecast of ECMWF,JMA and HNGRIB is smaller in various lead times,but those of GERMAN and T639 increase with the lead time.

关 键 词：细网格模式 流域面雨量 预报效果检验 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]