溃变理论在滇东南暴雨预报中的应用  

Application of Blow-up Theory to Rainstorm Forecast in Southeast Yunnan

作　　者：刘佳 周秀美 叶文群 李艳春 Liu Jia;Zhou Xiumei;Ye Wenqun;Li Yanchun(Honghe Meteorological Service,Yunnan,Mengzi 661199)

机构地区：[1]云南省红河州气象局,蒙自661199

出　　处：《气象科技》2018年第4期729-737,共9页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：云南省红河州气象局科研项目(HK201503)资助

摘　　要：根据溃变原理的非规则结构分析方法,对红河州1980—2015年259场暴雨过程进行了检验分析、合成分析和预测应用,计算分析了超低温及低频重力波指数与暴雨出现的相关性。结果表明:暴雨前12~36h,(低涡)切变暴雨、孟湾风暴(南支槽)暴雨、副高外围暴雨、西行台风暴雨和辐合区暴雨在探空站的V-3θ结构信息图上分析出明显的先兆特征,集中表现为对流层高层出现超低温、3θ曲线的非均匀结构、中低层的充沛水汽条件和整体顺滚流;超低温越强,未来12~48h降雨也会增大,但是超低温现象出现频率较大,需配合其他条件判断暴雨的出现;低频重力波稳定指数与未来24h降雨存在显著负相关,即低频重力波稳定指数越小,降雨量越大,前24h的低频重力波稳定指数值对暴雨指示意义最强,当低频重力波稳定指数值为-0.2^-0.4时发生暴雨的频率最高。The test analysis,synthesis analysis and application of prediction are undertaken by examining259 regional rainstorm processes happened in Honghe during the period of 1980 to 2015,according to the irregular structure analysis method of blow-up theory.The correlation between extreme low temperature and rainstorms,the index of low-frequency gravitational wave and rainstorms is calculated and analyzed.The results show that obvious precursory characteristics of（low vortex）shear rainstorms,the Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone（southern branch trough）rainstorms,the rainstorms in the periphery of the subtropical high,and the westward typhoon rainstorms can be shown and analyzed by using the V-3θstructural information graph 12 to 36 hours before the rainstorm,including the extreme low temperature at the upper troposphere,the non-uniform structure of 3θcurve,plentiful vapor at middle and lower levels,and the whole-troposphere deasil wind.The rainfall in the later 12 to 48 hours will magnify if the extreme low temperature goes down further.There is a significant negative correlation between the low-frequency gravity wave index C＊pand the rainfall in the next 24 hours.

关 键 词：溃变理论 暴雨预报 非规则结构信息 超低温 低频重力波指数 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]