非农就业、农地流转与粮食种植结构调整——基于固定观察点农户层面的微观实证  

The impacts of off-farm employment and farmland circulation on farmers' grain planting structure adjustment: A microcosmic study of selected fixed national rural observation points

作　　者：钱龙 袁航[2] 刘景景[3] 曹宝明[1] QIAN Long1, YUAN Hang2, LIU Jing-jing3, CAO Bao-ming1(1. Institute of Food Economic, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210003, China; 2. School of Agriculture and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China; 3. Rural Economy Research Center, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100810, China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食经济研究院,江苏南京210003 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [3]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2018年第5期789-797,共9页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71803077);教育部重大项目(16JJD790054);国家重点研发计划重点专项(2017YFD0401401)~~

摘　　要：本文基于农业部全国农村固定观察点微观调查大样本数据,探讨了家庭非农就业行为和农地流转行为对粮食种植结构的影响。研究发现:1)随着家庭非农就业涉入程度的加深,农户越倾向于提高粮食种植比例,即非农就业带来了"趋粮化"而不是"非粮化"。2)农地流转对粮食种植结构也有显著影响,表现为农地转入有助于提升粮食种植比例,而农地转出则会降低粮食种植比例。3)非农就业与农地流转存在显著的交互效应,表现为非农就业负向调节农地流转对粮食种植结构的影响,农地流转也负向调节非农就业对粮食种植结构的影响。本文意味着无需警惕非农就业和农地转入导致的"非粮化",而是应该关注农户转出农地之后的"非粮化"趋向。并且,在引导农户进行种植调整时,需要联动考虑"人走"和"地动"的影响。Based on a data of selected fixed national rural observation points, this paper discussed the influence of farmers＇ off-farm employment and farmland circulation on grain planting structure adjustment. Results show that： 1） off-farm employment has a significant impact on grain cultivation： the higher proportion of off-farm income and the higher proportion of off-farm employment time, the higher proportion of grain cultivation; 2） farmland circulation has a significant impact on grain planting structure, which shows that farmland transfer-in can effectively increase the proportion of grain cultivation, while farmland transfer-out will reduce the proportion of grain cultivation; and 3） the interaction between off-farm employment and farmland circulation shows that off-farm employment is negatively regulated to the impact of farmland circulation on grain cultivation, and farmland circulation is also negatively regulated to the impact of off-farm employment on grain planting structure. This paper suggests that there is no need to fear ＂non-grainification＂ caused by off-farm employment and farmland circulation. Instead, it should focus on the ＂non- grainification＂ trend caused by farmland circulation. In addition, when guiding farmers to adjust their grain growing structure, the impacts of ＂people walking＂ and ＂land adjustment＂ should be considered.

关 键 词：非农就业 农地流转 粮食种植结构 “非粮化” 固定观察点 

分 类 号：F322[经济管理—产业经济]