2018年上半年辽宁省生猪生产形势分析及后期预测  

Situation Analysis and Late Forecast of Production of Pigs in Liaoning Province in the First half of 2018

作　　者：李英[1] 刘全[1] 石伟峰 Li Ying;Liu Quan;Shi Weifeng(Liaoning province animal health monitoring and earlier warning center,Liaoning Shenyang 110001;Chaoyang City Animal Husbandry Veterinary Monitoring Earlier Warning Center,Liaoning Chaoyang 122000)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省动物卫生监测预警中心,辽宁沈阳110001 [2]辽宁省朝阳市畜牧兽医监测预警中心,辽宁朝阳122000

出　　处：《现代畜牧兽医》2018年第8期46-50,共5页Modern Journal of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine

摘　　要：近十年来,养猪经历了大约三个波动周期,与同样养殖低谷的2010年和2014年相比,2018年上半年养殖效益低于2010年同期,价格低于2014年同期,可以说是最为惨淡的一段时间。产品价格持续下跌,养殖效益严重亏损,养殖户纷纷减产;消费市场低迷,节日效应未现,学校、工地等大集团消费不明显。目前来看,产能削减仍未到位,后期消费动力不足,生猪生产正处于相对较长时间的低谷期,今年全年生产亏损或保本微利的格局基本清晰,想再现上两年的繁荣景象已无可能。Over the past 10 years, pig farming has experienced about three cycles of fluctua - tions. Compared with 2010 and 2014, which were the same low season, the efficiency of breeding in the first half of 2018 was lower than in the same period in 2010, and the price was lower than in the same period in 2014. It can be said that it was the most bleak period of time. The price of products has continued to fall, the aquaculture benefits have been seriously lost, and farmers have reduced production. The consumer market is sluggish, the holiday effect is not present, and the consumption of large groups such as schools and construction sites is not obvious. At present, the production capacity reduction is still not in place, the late consumption power is not enough, pig production is in a relatively long period of low Valley, this year＇s production loss or the pattern of guaranteed profit is basically clear, it is impossible to reproduce the previous two years of prosperity.

关 键 词：生猪 生产形势 后期预测 辽宁省 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]