2008—2017年广西死因监测点四种主要慢性病死亡及早死概率分析  

Death and probability of premature mortality caused by four major chronic diseases in the death cause monitoring areas of Guangxi,2008—2017

作　　者：孟军[1] 毛玮[1] 黄金梅[1] MENG Jun;MA;HUANG Jin-mei(Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanning 530028,Guangxi China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区疾病预防控制中心,广西南宁530028

出　　处：《应用预防医学》2018年第5期343-348,共6页Applied Preventive Medicine

基　　金：广西医疗卫生适宜技术开发与推广应用项目(S201684)

摘　　要：目的分析广西死因监测点心脑血管疾病、癌症、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病等四种慢性病死亡率、早死概率及变化趋势,为制定慢性病防控策略提供科学依据。方法计算、分析和比较2008—2017年广西死因监测点不同性别、城乡四种慢性病早死概率及其年均增长速度;并以慢性病防治规划中重大慢性病早死概率目标为标准,评价四种慢性病早死概率实现目标的难度。结果 2008—2017年,广西死因监测点四种慢性病死亡人数占总死亡人数的比例从70.14%上升至79.11%,死亡率从455.18/10万上升至508.41/10万,标化死亡率从589.27/10万下降到440.43/10万。四种慢性病合计早死概率呈下降趋势,男性早死概率远高于女性,女性、城市居民早死概率下降速度分别大于男性、农村居民,农村居民糖尿病早死概率呈快速上升趋势。根据既往速率预测,四种主要慢性病合计早死概率无法实现规划控制目标。结论广西死因监测点四种慢性病早死概率呈持续下降趋势,但下降幅度不大,建议进一步加强慢性病的综合防治,采取有针对性措施,以男性和农村居民为重点人群,争取实现慢性病防治规划中的既定目标。Objective The state and trend of mortality rate, probability of premature mortality caused by four chronic diseases such as cardiovascular and eerebrovaseular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases in the death cause monitoring areas of Guangxi were analyzed, to provide scientific basis for formulating strategies. Methods The probability and the average annual growth rate of premature mortality caused by the four chronic diseases in urban and rural areas,in male and female, were calculated, and analyzed based on the data collected in the cause monitoring areas of Guangxi from 2008 to 2017. The possobality to realize the targets and the difficulty of achieving the goals setted in the chronic disease prevention and treatment planning was evaluated. Results In the death cause monitoring areas of Guangxi from 2008 to 2017, the proportion of deaths of the four chronic diseases in the deaths of all causes rose from 70.14% to 79.11%,the mortality rate rose from 455.18/100 000 to 508.41/100 000, and the standardized mortality rate descend from 589.27/100 000 to 440.43/100 000. The probability of premature mortality of four chronic diseases kept decreasing, while the probability of premature mortality in males was much higher than that in females. The probability of premature mortality of females and urban residents decreased more rapidly than that of males and rural residents respective- ly.The probability of premature mortality caused by diabetes in rural residents increased rapidly. Prediction based on the changing rates in the obsmwing period,the proba- bility of premature mortality caused by the four major chronic diseases could not achieve the goal of the planning control. Conclusion The probability of premature mortality of chronic diseases shows a decreasing trend in death cause monitoring areas of Guangxi,but the decline speed is not high. To achieve the goal of chronic disease prevention and treatment planning the comprehensive prevention and treatment of chronic diseases should be strengthe

关 键 词：慢性病 死亡率 早死概率 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]