茶园黑刺粉虱越冬代成虫发生期与发生量的模型分析  

Model analysis of occurring period and quantity of overwintering Aleurocanthus spiniferus adults in tea yard

作　　者：兰建军[1] 秦建洋 洪海清[1] 包伟方 谢友祥[1] 泮明汉 Lan Jianjun;Qin Jianyang;Hong Haiqing;Bao Weifang;Xie Youxiang;Pan Minghan(Agricuhural Bureau of Songyang County,Songyang Zhejiang 323400,China;Agriculture Public Service Center of Anmin Town,Songyang Zhejiang 323403,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省松阳县农业局,浙江松阳323403 [2]浙江省松阳县安民乡农业公共服务中心,浙江松阳323403

出　　处：《中国植保导刊》2018年第9期38-41,49,共5页China Plant Protection

摘　　要：通过对浙江省松阳县茶园越冬代黑刺粉虱发生期与相关气象因子进行回归分析,表明越冬代黑刺粉虱的发生高峰日与1—3月的日平均气温呈负相关,气温越高、高峰日出现时间越早,回归方程为y=51.15-2.93x(R^2=0.971)。进一步对越冬代黑刺粉虱的虫口密度动态进行模拟分析,表明Logistic模型Y=1/e^((0.503t+9.738))(R^2=0.968)和幂模型Y=e^((3.061 lnt+0.027))(R^2=0.968)对其种群动态增长的拟合度最高。研究结果对茶园中越冬代黑刺粉虱发生期与发生量的预测具有指导意义。Regression analysis was conducted on meteorological factors and occurring period of overwintering Aleurocanthus spiniferus adults in tea field of Songyang county, Zhejiang province. The results showed that occurring peak period of overwintering A. spiniferus adults was only negatively related with the daily average temperature of January to March. And the higher of the temperature, the earlier of the occurring peak period appeared. And the regression equation was y=51.15-2.93 x（R^2=0.971）. According to analysis of density dynamics of overwintering A. spiniferus adults,the Logistic model and Power model showed the highest fitting effect for population dynamic growth, and the regression equation were Y=1/e^（0.503 t＋9.738）（R^2=0.968） and Y=e^（3.061 lnt＋0.027）（R^2=0.968）, respectively. The results could be of significant references to predict the occurring period and quantity of overwintering A. spiniferus adults in tea field.

关 键 词：黑刺粉虱 日平均气温 虫口密度 Logistic模型 幂模型 

分 类 号：S431.292[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]