基于理想点-可拓云模型的煤炭资源可持续力评价  

Evaluation of Sustainable Capacity of Coal Resources Based on Extension Cloud Theory and Ideal Point Method

作　　者：薛黎明[1] 刘保康[1] 郑志学 李长明[1] 张水晶 朱琳龙 苏超[1] 徐翠云 XUE Li-ming;LIU Bao-kang;ZHENG Zhi-xue;LI Chang-ming;ZHANG Shui-jing;ZHU Lin-long;SU Chao;XU Cui-yun(Faculty of Resources and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology（Beijing）,Beijing 100083,China;College of Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Exploration and Development Research Institute of Petro China Huabei Oilfield Company,Renqiu 062552,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083 [2]北京大学工学院,北京100871 [3]中国石油华北油田分公司勘探开发研究院,河北任丘062552

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2018年第9期1657-1665,共9页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(2009QZ08);国家自然科学基金项目(51504259)~~

摘　　要：论文针对煤炭资源可持续力评价中多指标信息不相容的问题以及评价等级划分的随机性和模糊性,综合运用可拓云理论与理想点组合赋权法,建立煤炭资源可持续力评价的理想点-可拓云模型。该模型根据可拓云理论构造了物元可拓云模型,通过关联函数确定了各等级云关联度,并与各指标理想点组合权重相结合,从而得到可持续力综合云关联度,确定了煤炭资源可持续力评价等级。将该模型应用于河北省2015年煤炭资源可持续力评价,评价等级特征值为3.069,可知评价等级最接近Ⅲ级,通过云发生器计算各等级概率,结果表明,2015年河北省煤炭资源可持续力处于中等水平,与实地调研结果基本相符。该方法科学合理、结果可靠,为资源可持续力评价提供了一种新的参考方法。Traditional methods of sustainable capacity evaluation of coal resources cannot take account of the incompatibility of multi-indexes and the randomness and fuzziness of the boundary information of classes. A new evaluation model by integrating the extension cloud theory of the matter-element concept and the combined weight of ideal point method is established. The matter-element extension cloud model is constructed by applying the extension cloud theory. Ideal point method is introduced to integrate the subjective weighting approach and the objective weighting approach so that the combination weight of each index can be obtained. The cloud related degree of each sustainable capacity class of coal resources can be calculated by correlation function, and in turn the comprehensive related degree can be obtained by integrating the combination weight with the related degree, and finally the classification of sustainable capacity can be achieved. The evaluation model is applied to evaluate the sustainable capacity of coal resources in Hebei Province in 2015, and the result is in highly consistent with the spot survey results. The value of evaluation grade is 3.069, which is quite close to level Ⅲ. The probability of each grade is calculated through the cloud generator. The evaluation result shows that the sustainable capacity of coal resources in Hebei Province in 2015 is at medium level. Compared with the existing methods, the evaluation method is reasonable and scientific. This model based on the extension theory and ideal point method provides a new reference for those who evaluate the sustainable capacity of natural resources.

关 键 词：理想点 可拓理论 云模型 煤炭资源 可持续力 

分 类 号：F426.21[经济管理—产业经济]