气象因素与数学模型相结合在庐江县手足口病特征分析及预测中的应用  

Application of Meteorologic Factors and Mathematical Model in the Analysis and Predication of Hand Foot and Mouth Diseases in Lujiang

作　　者：张慧玲[1] 洪光烈[1] 张丹[1] 琚娟娟 ZHA NG Hui-ling;HONG Guang-lie;ZHA NG Dan;JU Juan-juan(Lujiang Disease Prevention Control Center,Hefei,Anhui Province,231500 China)

机构地区：[1]庐江县疾病预防控制中心,安徽合肥231500

出　　处：《系统医学》2018年第16期24-26,共3页Systems Medicine

摘　　要：目的为公众提供气候敏感性健康风险的早期预警信息和应对措施,防范气候变化所带来的公众健康危害,探讨气象因素变化在传染病防控工作中应用。方法运用集中度、圆形分布法、灰色模型和ARIMA模型等方法分析庐江县近几年传染病与气象因素的关联及其发病的季节性,预测发病高峰期及其流行期,该文以手足口病为例,通过搜集2011—2015年庐江县手足口病和气温、气压以及相对湿度等资料,分析庐江县手足口病发病的季节性、发病高峰、流行期以及手足口病与气象因素的关联程度。结果庐江县2011-2015年手足口病集中度为0.169 6,发病高峰一般在5月下旬,流行期从2月6日—9月13日,手足口病病例数与气温、气压和相对湿度的关联系数为0.92、0.35和0.95。ARIMA模型预测出2016年手足口病发病高峰主要在4~6月,11月还有一个小高峰。结论传染病与气象因素之间存在着一定的关系,通过分析可以确定传染病发病的季节性,预测其发病高峰及流行期,对庐江县手足口病等传染病的预防策略和措施的制定具有重要意义。Objective To provide the early precaution information and countermeasures of health risk of climate sensitivity, prevent the public health risk brought by the climate changes, and study the application of meteorologic factors in the prevention and control work of infectious diseases. Methods The correlation between the infectious disease and meteorologic factors in recent years in Lujiang and onset season were analyzed by the concentration degree, circular distribution method, grey model and ARIMA model thus predicting the onset peak period and epidemic period, and the paper analyzed the correlation between the onset season, onset peak, epidemic period and meteorologic factors in Lujiang was analyzed by collecting the data of hand foot and mouth diseases in Lujiang, temperature, air pressure and relative humidity from 2011 to 2015 by taking the hand foot and mouth disease as an example. Results The concentration ratio of the hand foot and mouth disease in Lujiang from 2011 to 2015 was 0.169 6, and the onset peak period was in the late-May in general, and the epidemic period was from February 6 to September 13, and the correlation coefficients between the case number of the hand foot and mouth disease and temperature, air pressure and relative humidity were respectively 0.92,0.35 and 0.95. ARIMA model predicted that the onset peak of hand foot and mouth disease in 2016 was mainly in April to June, and there was a small peak in November. Conclusion The infectious disease has a certain correlation with the meteorologic factors, and the analysis can determine the onset season of infectious disease, and predict the onset peak and epidemic period, which is of important significance to making the predictive strategies and measures of infectious diseases such as the hand foot and mouth diseases in Lujiang.

关 键 词：集中度法 圆形分布法 气象因素 手足口病 

分 类 号：R725[医药卫生—儿科]