父母如何影响女性的二孩生育计划——来自中国城市的证据  

Parental Influence on Women's Second-birth Plan in Urban China

作　　者：靳永爱[1] 赵梦晗[1] 宋健[1] Jin Yongai;Zhao Menghan;Song Jian(Jin Yongai is Assistant Professor,Zhao Menghan（Corresponding Author）is Post Doctorial Fellow,Song Jian is Professor,Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of Chi-na.Email ： sophiezhaomh@ gmail,co)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心

出　　处：《人口研究》2018年第5期17-29,共13页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"‘全面两孩’政策实施后妇女生育水平及其决定因素研究"(16CRK003);"出生性别比失衡的生育选择机制研究"(15BRK010);国家社会科学基金重大项目"全面两孩生育政策的实施效应研究"(15ZDC036)资助

摘　　要：文章使用2016年全国6省12市的生育调查数据,分析了中国城市地区父母对20~44岁已婚已育一孩女性的二孩生育计划的影响,并讨论了家庭收入水平如何在代际影响中发挥调节作用。结果显示,父母通过照料支持和表达自身生育偏好影响女性的二孩生育计划,父母提供二孩照料支持、父母的二孩或多孩偏好以及性别偏好会显著提高女性有二孩生育计划的可能性。家庭收入水平不仅对二孩生育计划有显著的正向影响作用(即收入水平越高的家庭,更可能有二孩生育计划),还在父母性别偏好对女性生育计划的影响中发挥了重要的调节作用。父母性别偏好对女性二孩生育计划的影响在收入水平不同的家庭间存在差异,在收入水平越高的家庭,父母的性别偏好产生的影响越大。Using data from the 2016 fertility survey conducted in 12 cities of 6 provinces in China's Mainland,this study discusses the intergenerational effects on women＇ s plan for a second child in the era of universal two-child policy.We only focus on the main targeted group of this policy change married women who are between age 20 and 44 and have only one child in urban China, contributing to the discussions regarding future fertility trend.Overall, the results suggest that parental childcare supports and fertility preferences significantly affect women＇ s birth plan.Specifically, the probability of having a second child plan is higher if parents can provide childcare assistance, prefer to have two or more grandchildren or have sex preference.Also,family income is positively associated with women＇s plan to have a second child and moderates parental effects. The influence of parental sex preference on women＇s second child plan is stronger in families with higher income.

关 键 词：二孩生育计划 父母影响 生育偏好 工具性支持 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]