“一带一路”视野中的美元霸权危机及中国的战略选择  

The Dollar Hegemony Crisis and China's Strategic Options from the Perspective of the “Belt and Road” Initiative

作　　者：田行健 江涌[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学商学院 [2]中国现代国际关系研究院

出　　处：《和平与发展》2018年第5期64-81,133,共18页Peace and Development

摘　　要：当前,美元虽然表现强势,但美元霸权的结构性危机日益凸显:一是美国的货币信用因实体财富不足而缺失;二是美元霸权带来的贪婪不仅使美国经济结构日趋失衡、社会贫富矛盾加剧,而且随着资本与实体经济间距离渐行渐远,美国资本信用日益面临严重的失信问题;三是美元霸权的存在导致世界实体经济无法获得真正的价值补偿,对世界经济的负面效应超过正面效应。国际力量"南升北降",美元霸权的根基渐趋脆弱,空间更加狭小,国际金融秩序已到了"不破不立"的十字路口。这为中国借"一带一路"倡议构建国际金融新秩序提供了历史性机遇。但是,中国金融国际化之路应量力而行,以避免经济领域的"新特里芬难题",以及地缘政治领域的"威廉陷阱"和"修昔底德陷阱"。Although the Dollar remains strong currently, the structural crisis of the Dollar hegemony is getting more significant: first, the credibility of American currency is missing because of lacking physical wealth; second, the greed brought about by the Dollar hegemony has not only misbalanced the American economic structure and intensified the social disparity between the rich and the poor in the United States, but also much discredited American capital along with the departure of capital from the real economy; third, the existing Dollar hegemony has deprived the real economy of the world of getting real value compensation, exerting bigger negative impact than positive impact on world economy. As far as international forces are concerned, the South is rising while the North is declining, which has weakened the foundation of the Dollar hegemony and narrowed its space, bringing the international financial order to the crossroad of breaking up the old one and making a new one, and providing a historical opportunity for China to build a new international financial order through the "Belt and Road" initiative. However, Chinese financial internationalization should proceed in accordance with its ability so as to avoid a new "Triffin Dilemma" in economy, and the "William Trap" and the "Thucydides Trap" in geopolitics.

关 键 词：美元霸权 三大危机 “一带一路” 国际金融新秩序 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]