考虑绝缘老化和油色谱监测数据的变压器动态故障率模型  

Dynamic Failure Rate Model for Transformer Considering Insulation Aging and Oil Chromatographic Monitoring Data

作　　者：韩赛赛 刘宝柱[1] 艾欣[1] 张爽 HAN Saisai;LIU Baozhu;AI Xin;ZHANG Shuang(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Research Institute,Yinchuan 750002,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206 [2]国网宁夏电力有限公司电力科学研究院,宁夏回族自治区银川市750002

出　　处：《电网技术》2018年第10期3275-3281,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“智能电网技术与装备”重点专项“支撑低碳冬奥的智能电网综合示范工程”(2016YFB0900500)~~

摘　　要：为深入研究变压器内部潜伏性故障率与绝缘老化的定量关系,提出考虑绝缘老化和油色谱监测数据的变压器动态故障率模型。文中首先分析绕组热点温度和绝缘纸含水量对绝缘老化的综合加速作用,并根据变压器绝缘寿命和状态转移速率的负相关关系,求出能够综合反映变压器健康状况和运行工况的时变状态转移速率。然后考虑变压器修复的影响,并基于马尔科夫状态转移过程,求出变压器运行在各状态下故障率的时域公式。最后与传统马尔科夫模型作比较,结果表明该文模型不但能够反映内部潜伏性故障的发展过程,而且可以量化维修对变压器故障率的影响,以此给变压器维修策略的选择与制定奠定科学的理论基础。In order to intensively study quantitative relationship between internal latent failure rate and insulation aging of transformers, this paper proposes a dynamic failure rate model for transformer considering insulation aging and oil chromatographic monitoring data. Firstly, comprehensive acceleration effect of winding hot spot temperature and moisture content of insulation paper on insulation aging is analyzed. According to negative correlation between transformer insulation life and state transfer rate, the time varying state transfer rate, reflecting transformer health condition and operating condition, is obtained. Then, considering influence of transformer repair, and based on Markov state transfer process, the time domain formula of transformer failure rate in each state is obtained. Finally, comparison with traditional Markov model shows that this model can reflect development process of internal latent failure, and quantify effect of maintenance on transformer operation reliability, so as to lay a scientific and theoretical foundation for selection and formulation of transformer maintenance strategies.

关 键 词：油浸式变压器 内部潜伏性故障 动态故障率 绝缘老化 状态检修 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]