外贸制度变迁对中国出口三元边际的影响——基于中国入世和外贸经营登记制的实证研究  

The Impact of Foreign Trade Institutional Changes on China's Export Ternary Margins: An Empirical Study Based on China's WTO Accession and Registration System of Foreign Trade Business

作　　者：卞泽阳 强永昌[1] BIAN Ze-yang;QIANG Yong-chang(Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433

出　　处：《当代财经》2018年第10期90-101,共12页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"一带一路背景下中国金融双向开放的约束与突破研究"(17CJY055)

摘　　要：在理论分析的基础上,运用面板数据LSDV法借助2000—2007年中国工业企业数据库与中国海关进出口数据库的匹配数据就2001年中国加入WTO和2004年我国外贸经营实行登记制这两起重大的外贸制度变迁对我国出口三元边际的微观影响展开实证研究,结果表明:(1)在出口广延边际上,相比入世带来的海外市场需求拉力,登记制带来的国内出口市场供给推力在促进潜在企业出口参与和既有企业产品扩张方面的效果更显著;(2)在出口集约边际上,入世对企业出口数量扩张的影响呈现先升后降的倒U型趋势,而登记制加剧了国内出口竞争,使得企业传统产品的出口数量明显收缩;(3)在出口产品价格上,两起制度变迁对出口产品价格的边际影响随时间呈现先降后升的U型趋势,反映出外贸制度变迁带来的竞争效应在短期内会迫使企业通过降价保持竞争力,而在长期内有利于激励企业出口创新以获取持续的出口竞争力;(4)在区分不同的贸易模式后,两起制度变迁对一般贸易出口三元边际的影响相比加工贸易更为显著。Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper employs the LSDV method of panel data and makes use of the matched data between Chinese Customs Trade Statistics （CCTS） and Annual Survey of Industrial Firms （ASIF） during the period of 2000-2007 to conduct an empirical study of the micro impact of the two foreign trade institutional changes, i.e., China＇s WTO accession in 2001 and the registration system for foreign trade business in 2004, on China＇s export ternary margins. The findings are as follows： （1） as to the export extensive margins, compared to foreign demand pull brought by WTO accession, the domestic export market supply push brought by the registration sys- tem has exerted more remarkable impact on the promotion of both the export participation of the po- tential enterprises and the product expansion of the existing enterprises; （2） as to the export intensive margins, the impact of WTO accession on export quantity expansion shows an inverted？U-shape of first rising then falling, while the registration system has intensified the domestic export competition, leading to the distinctive compression of the export quantity of the traditional products; （3） as to the export product prices, the marginal impact of the two institutional changes presents a U-shape tenden- cy of first falling then rising over the time, which implies that the competition effect brought by the changes of foreign trade systems may compel enterprises to drop their product prices to keep their competitiveness in the short run, while in the long run it is in favor of encouraging enterprises＇ export innovation in order to gain sustainable export competitiveness; （4） after distinguishing the differ- ent trade patterns, the impact of the two institutional changes on the ternary margins of the ordinary trade export is more significant than on the processing trade.

关 键 词：制度变迁 WTO 登记制 出口三元边际 LSDV法 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]