西部资源型城市生命周期与房地产市场发展的关联性研究  

Research on the Relationship Between the Life Cycle of Western Resource-based Cities and the Development of Real Estate Market

作　　者：罗福周[1] 王清 LUO Fu-zhou;WANG Qing(School of Management Xi＇an University of Architecture ＆ Technology,Xi＇an 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学管理学院

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2018年第19期71-79,共9页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：住房城乡建设部2015年科学项目计划:西部资源型城市房地产市场发展研究:困境、成因和治理——以鄂尔多斯、榆林市为例(2015-R4-005);陕西省软科学研究计划项目“陕西省优势产业集群演化研究”(2014KRM3-06);陕西省建设厅项目“基于合同能源管理理念的公共建筑能耗监测研究”(2015-RZ40)

摘　　要：资源型城市的发展具有明显的周期性，房地产市场发展也呈现出其发展规律和特征．而资源型城市生命周期与房地产市场发展的关系是怎样的，还不太明确．通过建立两者之间的向量自回归（VAR）模型，以西部资源型城市——榆林市为例，对向量之间的动态关系进行了实证研究．研究表明：西部资源型城市生命周期与房地产业的市场发展具有长期的均衡协整关系，两个变量互为Granger因果关系，两个变量相互之间存在正向关联的冲击效应，但是这种关联性同时存在滞后性和非对称性．The development of resource-based cities has obvious cyclicality. The development of the real estate market also shows its development rules and characteristics. However, the relationship between the resource-based city life cycle and the development of the real estate market is not clear yet. Through establishing vector auto regression （VAR） model and taking Yulin, a resource-based city in western China as an example, this paper makes an empirical study on the dynamic relationship among vectors. The results show that the life cycles of western resource-based cities have a long-term equilibrium co-integration rela-tionship with the market development of real estate industry. The two variables are Granger causality and the two variables have a positive impact on each other. However, this Sexuality has both lag and asymmetry.

关 键 词：西部资源型城市 生命周期 房地产市场发展 非对称性 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]