不同同化方案在一次梅雨锋暴雨预报中的应用研究  

The application of different data assimilation systems in the meiyu front rainstorm forcast

作　　者：梅疏影[1,2,3] 闵锦忠 MEI Shuying;MIN Jinzhong(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanfing University of Information Science ＆ Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology Nanjing 210044,China;Pukou District Meteorological Bureau,Nanjing 211800,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [3]南京市浦口区气象局,南京211800

出　　处：《气象科学》2018年第4期432-441,共10页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB430102);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(41430427);江苏省高校自然科学重大基础研究项目(11KJA170001)

摘　　要：基于ATOVS辐射率资料和GTS常规观测资料融合,通过不同化任何观测资料的控制试验、3DVAR同化试验和ETKF-3DVAR混合同化试验,对2013年7月4—5日一次梅雨锋暴雨天气过程进行模拟分析。结果表明:混合同化方案能够明显地提高暴雨预报准确率,且有效改善了风场、温度场和相对湿度场等各个气象要素的初始场结构,而这些气象要素对于暴雨的预报准确性具有重要作用。且混合同化方案对于中低层大气改进效果较为明显。在数值积分过程中,随着时间的推移,混合同化方案的优势逐渐减弱。Combining the ATOVS emissivity data and GTS routine observation data,a simulation analysis for the Meiyu front rainstorm process from Jul. 4—5,2013 was conducted in this paper through the control test, 3 DVAR assimilation test and ETKF-3 DVAR blending assimilation test of any inassimilable observation data. The results showed that the blending assimilation scheme can obviously improve the accuracy of rainstorm forecast,and effectively improve the initial field structures of wind field,temperature field and relative humidity field and other meteorological elements, while these meteorological elements play an important role in the accuracy of rainstorm forecast. Besides, the blending assimilation scheme has an evident effect on improving the middle and low atmosphere. In the process of numerical integration,the advantages of the blending assimilation scheme gradually diminish over time.

关 键 词：变分同化 混合同化 卫星资料 梅雨锋暴雨 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]