基于BCC＿CSM模式的破纪录高温事件研究  

Study on the record-breaking event of high temperature based on BCC＿CSM model

作　　者：张羽充 况雪源[1] ZHANG Yuchong;KUANG Xueyuan(School of Atmospheric Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210023

出　　处：《气象科学》2018年第4期531-538,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0600504);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41775073)

摘　　要：利用国家气候中心发展的海气耦合模式BCC_CSM 1.1模拟的北半球逐日最高气温数据探讨了近年来破纪录高温事件频数变化特征,并预估了其在未来不同情景排放下的可能变化。基于单点逐日最高气温模拟资料呈正态分布及破纪录高温事件符合随机理论,对北半球近50 a破纪录高温事件频数进行了模拟与理论的对比分析。结果表明:破纪录高温事件频数模拟理论比呈现显著的上升趋势,且这种上升趋势海洋大于陆地,低纬大于高纬;通过与气温相关分析得知破纪录高温事件频数模拟理论比的上升趋势主要是由北半球气温上升导致。在此基础上,比较了RCP4.5与RCP8.5两种不同排放情景下破纪录高温事件频数模拟理论比的变化特征,结果表明在后期(2060—2098)二者差异显著,前者变化较为平稳,而后者具有显著上升趋势,这种差异是对气温不同变化的响应,且低纬海洋的响应比陆地更为敏感。Under the background of global warming,the Record-Breaking Event（ RBE） of high temperature occurs more frequently and attracts the worldwide attention. This paper analyzed the variation of the RBE of high temperature in recent years and estimated the possible variation under different warming scenarios in the future based on a coupled model（ BCC_CSM1.1） developed by national climate center. The daily maximum temperature simulation data on a single point showed a normal distribution,and the RBE of high temperature is in line with the stochastic theory. On this basis,we compare the simulation and theory of RBE of high temperature in the northern hemisphere in recent 50 years. The results show that the ratio between simulation and theoretical value takes a significant rising trend and varies in different regions,namely,the ratio is higher in ocean than in land,and higher in low-latitudes than in mid-latitudes. Through the correlation analysis of temperature,it is learned that the rise of temperature in the northern hemisphere plays the primary role in the rising trend of the ratio of RBE of high temperature. Moreover,the variation characteristics of RBE frequency of high temperature under two warming scenarios（ RCP4.5 and RCP8.5） were compared. The large difference is found in the later half period（ 2060—2098）,with the ratio significantly rising under RCP8.5 while stable under RCP4.5. Such difference is the response to the changes of temperature,and this response ofthe low-latitude ocean is more sensitive than that in land.

关 键 词：全球变暖 破纪录事件 高温 BCC_CSM模式 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]