基于德尔菲法构建我国恶性肿瘤相关监测系统评价指标体系  

Establishment of evaluation index system for cancer-related surveillance system based on Delphi method,China

作　　者：王嘉艺 杜建姝 米玉倩 杜晨蕾 虎霄 王学梅 吴静[2] WANG Jia-yi;DU Jian-shu;MI Yu-qian;DU Chen-lei;HU Xiao;WANG Xue-mei;WU Jing(School of public health,Inner Mongolia Medical University,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010110,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古医科大学公共卫生学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010110 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心,北京102206

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2018年第19期3457-3460,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划重大慢性非传染性疾病防控研究"以精准防控为导向基于大数据的主要恶性肿瘤危险因素监测及控制关键技术研究"(项目编号:2016YFC1302600)

摘　　要：目的构建一套评价指标体系,用于评价我国现有与恶性肿瘤相关的监测系统,为我国未来建立完整、有效的恶性肿瘤监测系统提供科学依据。方法利用改良的德尔菲法进行两轮专家咨询,通过分析结果来筛选修善指标,并利用专家评分计算指标权重,建立最终的评价指标体系。结果两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为85. 00%和94. 74%,平均专家权威系数为0. 835;第二轮咨询所有指标重要性和可行性评分的专家意见协调系数分别为0. 578(P <0. 01)和0. 589(P <0. 01);最终构建的评价指标体系包括3个一级指标、10个二级指标和25个三级指标。结论本研究构建的评价指标体系专家积极性高、权威程度和协调程度好、指标权重计算合理,可以尝试用于相关监测系统的评价,为今后建立我国恶性肿瘤监测系统提供参考依据。Objective To establish an index system for evaluating the cancer - related surveillance systems in China, and to provide a scientific basis for establishing a complete and effective malignant tumor surveillance system in the future. Methods The modified Delphi method was adopted and two rounds of expert consultation were carried out to screen and amend indexes and the final evaluation index system was formulated by using the expert scores to calculate. Results The active coefficients of the experts in the two rounds were 85.00% and 94.74%, respectively, and the average expert authority coefficient was O. 835. The coordination coefficient of experts opinions on the importance and feasibility scores in the second round were 0. 578 （ P 〈 0.01） and 0. 589 （P 〈0.01）, respectively. The final evaluation index system was established including 3 primary indexes, 10 secondary indexes and 25 tertiary indexes. Conclusion The evaluation index system constructed in this study has high expert enthusiasm, good authority and coordination degree of experts and reasonable calculation of index weight. It can be used to evaluate the relevant surveillance systems and provide a reference for establishing cancer surveillance system in China.

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤监测 监测系统评价 指标体系 德尔菲法 

分 类 号：R194[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]