计及风速-电锅炉等电采暖负荷相关性的配电网可靠性评估  

Reliability evaluation of distribution network considering correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load such as electricity boiler

作　　者：李娟 周红莲 周二彪 刘自发[2] 王威[3] LI Juan;ZHOU Honglian;ZHOU Erbiao;LIU Zifa;WANG Wei(Economic Research Institute,State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Company,Urumqi 830002,China;School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;School of Machine and Electrical Engineering,Shandong Science and Technology University,Tai＇an 271019,China)

机构地区：[1]国网新疆电力公司经济技术研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206 [3]山东科技大学机电工程系,山东泰安271019

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2018年第10期26-31,共6页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目(5230JY16000U)~~

摘　　要：风力发电和电锅炉等电采暖负荷接入配电网的可靠性评估过程中,风速-负荷联合二元正态分布函数不能够反映风速-电锅炉等电采暖负荷之间的相关性,从而影响了计算的准确性。基于Copula理论,建立风速-电锅炉等电采暖负荷相关性的Gumbel-Copula函数关系,通过极大似然估计确定Copula函数中的具体参数,得到其联合概率密度分布函数,并利用蒙特卡洛模拟法计算配电网可靠性指标。通过算例分析结果表明,Gumbel-Copula函数能够较好地反映风速和电锅炉等电采暖负荷之间的相关性,基于所提模型可有效、准确地计算风电和电采暖负荷接入配电网的可靠性。In the reliability evaluation process of the distribution network connected with wind power and electricity heating load such as electricity boiler, the joint bivariate normal distribution function of wind speed-load cannot accu- rately describe the correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load, which decreases the calculation accuracy. The Gumbel-Copula function of the correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load is established based on Copula theory, and the parameters in Copula function are determined by the maximum likelihood estimate method. Consequently, the joint probability density distribution function can be obtained, and the reliability indices of distribution network are calculated by using Monte Carlo simulation method. Case study results show that the Gumbel-Copula function can well describe the correlation between wind speed and electricity heating load,which contributes to the effective and accurate calculation of distribution network reliability.

关 键 词：配电网 可靠性评估 COPULA理论 电采暖负荷 蒙特卡洛方法 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]