保定市交通系统抗震可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of Transportation System in Baoding City

作　　者：缪逸飞 MIAO Yifei(College of Architecture and Civil Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学,北京100124

出　　处：《华南地震》2018年第3期62-67,共6页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：通过研究城市交通系统各组成单元的可靠性,针对保定市交通系统进行震害预测。采用蒙特卡罗随机模拟技术和道路、桥梁单体易损性分析方法以及模糊综合评判法,给出了不同烈度下交通系统网络中各节点的可靠度,分析了选取不同的源点以及源点个数对整个网络系统可靠性的影响。根据保定市交通系统中道路和桥梁的震害预测结果,指出了保定市需要改建、加固的路段以及对保定市火车站作为应急中心合理性的分析,从而为保定市交通系统震前防灾规划提出对策及建议。Based on the study of reliability of each unit of urban traffic system, this paper predicts the earthquake damage of traffic system in Baoding city. Monte Carlo method,vulnerability analysis method of road and bridge unit and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to analyze the reliability of each node in the network under different intensities. At the same time,the paper analyzes the influence of the selected different source points and the number of source points on the reliability of the whole network system. According to the prediction results of road and bridge damage in Baoding city transportation system,it is pointed out that the road section needs to be reconstructed and reinforced,and the rationality of railway station location in Baoding city needs to be analyzed. Finally the paper puts forward some suggestions and countermeasures for pre-earthquake disaster prevention planning of Baoding city traffic system.

关 键 词：交通系统 车站选址 可靠度评价 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] P315.9[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]