“中国式过马路”行为随机尖点突变模型  

Stochastic Catastrophe Analysis of “Chinese-Style Road Crossing” Phenomenon

作　　者：林徐勋 袁鹏程[3] 朱佳翔 张春勤[4] LIN Xuxun;YUAN Pengcheng;ZHUJiaxiang;ZHANG Chunqin(Business School,Changzhou University,Changzhou 213164,Jiangsu,China;School of Economics and Management,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang Sci Tech University,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]常州大学商学院,江苏常州213164 [2]东南大学经济管理学院,南京210096 [3]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 [4]浙江理工大学建筑工程学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2018年第5期920-927,937,共9页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71601118);国家社会科学基金重点资助项目(16AGL011)

摘　　要："中国式过马路"行为严重影响道路车辆畅通,并危及行人安全;已有模型较少考虑随机扰动对过街行为的影响。以动态演化博弈视角解析行人过街行为,并引入白噪声效用随机干扰,运用随机尖点突变理论探讨"中国式过马路"博弈过程中随机扰动对过街行为的影响,从理论层面论述了行人过街行为中"突变"现象的产生和发展机理。在此基础上计算过街行为"突变"发生的临界集,探讨惩治措施、红灯等待时间及提前闯灯效用等参数的连续变化对博弈演化轨迹的影响。最后,通过数值分析刻画过街群体行为对监管政策的敏感性,为"中国式过马路"行为的预测和治理提供了新的理论视角。The behavior of ＂Chinese-style road crossing＂ is seriously affecting the smooth flow of vehicles and endangering the safety of pedestrians. The existing models seldom consider the random disturbance on crossing behavior. This paper established a model by introducing the random disturbance of white noise, based on the dynamic evolutionary game theory. By using the stochastic cusp catastrophe theory, it described the influence of random disturbance on pedestrians＇ road-crossing behavior, and theoretically explained the cause and process of catastrophe phenomenon. Moreover, it calculated the critical set of behavioral catastrophe of road-crossing pedestrians, and further discussed the influence on the system dynamic evolution process caused by the continuous change of red signal waiting time, punitive measures and utility of running the red light. Furthermore, it reflected the sensitivity of group behavior to the regulatory policy by numerical analysis and finally provided a new theoretical perspective for the prediction and governance of ＂Chinese-style road crossing＂ behavior.

关 键 词：中国式过马路 行人过街 随机尖点突变 演化博弈 惩治措施 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]