政策性奶牛保险对农户奶牛养殖死亡损失的影响研究  

A Study on the Effect of Policy Cow Insurance on the Losses of Dairy Farmers

作　　者：赵元凤[1] 张旭光[1] ZHAO Yuanfeng;ZHANG Xuguang

机构地区：[1]内蒙古农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《保险研究》2018年第9期66-80,共15页Insurance Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71563037);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2015MS0705)

摘　　要：2008年,我国正式实施政府保费补贴的奶牛保险政策,目的在于利用保险手段建立疫病和自然灾害的风险防范机制,降低农户的奶牛养殖死亡损失。为了识别奶牛保险对农户奶牛养殖死亡损失的影响,本文利用奶牛保险政策在内蒙古自治区逐步开展的特点,形成的实证分析所需的"自然试验"背景,基于微观调查数据,应用倍差法和倾向得分匹配倍差法实证检验奶牛保险的实际减损效果。研究发现,奶牛保险政策对农户奶牛养殖死亡损失具有负向处理效应,但显著水平较弱。进一步分析可知,奶牛保险制度设计与当前奶牛养殖风险之间的不匹配,是造成奶牛保险政策没有显著发挥减损作用的重要原因。In 2008, China officially implemented the policy of subsidized cow insurance, aiming at establishing the risk prevention mechanism of epidemic and natural disasters by means of insurance to reduce dairy farmer losses. In order to identify the impact of cow insurance on the dairy cattle losses, tiffs paper used the characteristics of the dairy insurance policy in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and constructed the ＂natural test＂ required by the empirical design. Based on the microscopic survey data,the DID model and PSM-DID model were used to test the loss-reduction effect of the cow insurance. The study found that the dairy cattle insurance policy had a negative treatment effect on farmer＇ s dairy cattle death losses, but the significant level was weak. Further analysis showed that the mismatch between the cow insurance system and the current risk of dairy farming was an important reason for the failure of the dairy insurance policy to reduce losses of the dairy farmers.

关 键 词：奶牛保险 奶牛养殖 死亡损失 匹配倍差模型 影响 

分 类 号：F840.66[经济管理—保险]