中国区域低碳发展评价及影响因素研究:基于面板数据模型  

Assessment and impacting factors of China's regional low-carbon development based on panel data analysis

作　　者：蒋金荷[1] JIANG Jinhe(Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100872

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2018年第9期32-46,共15页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程基础学者项目(2014-2018);中国社会科学院"登峰战略"资助计划之"环境技术经济学"重点学科建设项目;国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)"气候变化经济过程的复杂性机制;新型集成评估模块簇与政策模拟平台研发"(2012CB955801)

摘　　要：首先测算2000—2015年全国以及30个省市区分能源品种的碳排放量,综述研究期内各地区的低碳发展特征,应用指数分解方法评价各区域影响人均碳排放量变化的主要驱动因子及贡献率,并利用面板数据模型实证研究研究期内经济发展水平、能源政策、环境保护措施、城市化进程对碳排放的影响。结果表明:少数地区的人均碳排放量在研究期内出现峰值,提高能源效率是减少碳排放量的主要途径;经济增长和化石能源燃料的使用对各个地区碳排放的增加有显著的驱动作用,城镇化率和环保政策对碳排放的影响在统计意义上不显著。最后基于模型结果提出区域低碳发展的政策建议。The carbon emissions by energy sources at the country-level and 30 provinces from 2000 to 2015 were evaluated firstly,along with the low carbon development properties of each region during the study period.The index decomposition models were used to study the key driving factors that affect the changes of per capita carbon emissions of provinces, and the panel data model empirically studied the impact of economic development level,energy policy,environmental protection measures,and urbanization process on carbon emissions during the study period. The results show that per capita carbon emissions in a few regions reach the peaks during the study period,and energy efficiency is the main pathways to reduce carbon emissions.Economic growth and fossil fuel use are the main drivers of carbon emissions at regions. The impact of urbanization rate and environmental protection policies on carbon emissions is not statistically significant.Finally,based on the model results,the regional low carbon development policy recommendations are proposed.

关 键 词：低碳发展 区域碳排放 指数分解模型 面板数据 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F224