美国拒认中国市场经济地位对两国经济的影响  

America denies the impact of China's market economy status on the economy in China and America

作　　者：张涛[1] 吕指臣 朱轩彤 ZHANG Tao;LYU Zhichen;ZHU Xuantong(Institute of Quantitative ＆ Technical Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京100732 [2]中国社会科学院研究生院,北京102488

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2018年第9期53-64,共12页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：中国社会科学院2017年度创新工程重大专题项目"新时代新发展理念评价体系与测度"

摘　　要：随着中国经济在全球经济发展贡献上占比越来越高,中国贸易发展过程中的市场经济地位问题备受关注。为了探究中国和美国贸易过程中美国拒认中国市场经济地位给中美两国和世界其他国家造成的影响,使用反倾销等值关税代替非市场经济地位,根据反倾销等值关税的可调整力度设置基准、中等、优化3种不同情景,依托全球贸易分析模型,结合情景分析法和逆向递推法,测量将非市场经济地位折算为不同情景下的反倾销等值关税时,对中美两国经济、福利、产业等的影响。结果发现:相对于基准情景,在中等情景下,美国拒认中国市场经济地位使两国及世界经济均受到负面影响,世界整体福利水平将会降低0. 008%,中美两国的进出口也会降低一定比例,同时将降低两国之间多个产业部门的贸易量;在优化情景下,美国拒认中国市场经济地位提高了中国机电设备、交通运输设备、化工产品等高质量产业的产出量,反而使美国的对应行业产出量降低,美国和世界资源配置效率也将分别降低。中国对美国和世界其他国家经济、福利和产业有巨大贡献,中国的市场经济地位将会促进中美两国贸易发展和经济发展,也有助于提升世界整体福利水平和资源配置效率。As China＇s economic development has become more and more important in the contribution of global economic development,the issue of market economy status in China＇s trade development has attracted much attention. To explore the impact of the United States＇ refusal to recognize China＇s market economy status on China and the United States,and other countries in the world in the process of trade to China and the United States,the paper uses anti-dumping equivalent tariffs instead of non-market economy status,and according to the adjustable potency of antidumping tariff equivalent sets three different scenarios of the benchmark,the medium,optimization,relying on the global trade analysis model,combining with the scenario analysis method and reverse recursive method,measuring the non-market economy status converted into different scenarios of antidumping tariff equivalent,the economy in China and the United States,welfare,industry and so on. The results show that,compared with the benchmark scenario,in the medium scenario,the United States＇ rejection of China＇s market economy status would negatively affect both the economy of these two countries and the world,and the overall world welfare level would be reduced by 0. 008%. The import and export of China and the United States would also decrease a certain proportion,and the trade volume between the two countries in multiple industrial sectors would be reduced. Under the optimized scenario,the United States,despite its recognition of China＇s market economy status,has improved the output of China＇s high-quality industries such as electromechanical equipment,transportation equipment,chemical products,etc.; but it has reduced the output of corresponding industries in the United States,and the efficiency of resource allocation in the United States and the world will be reduced respectively. It can be seen that China has made great contributions to the economy,welfare and industry of the United States and other countries in the world. The market economy status

关 键 词：市场经济地位 情景分析法 全球贸易分析模型 国际贸易 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]